Sport Picks
Alacranes de Durango vs Tlaxcala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango 
Match Events
8'
8'
Hernandez E.
(Penalty)
28'
28'
Flores B.
45'
45'
Flores S.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alacranes de Durango
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Alacranes de Durango lately — more wins on the board than Tlaxcala.
- 42% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 15%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alacranes de Durango | Tlaxcala |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 10 |
| Draws | 10 | 10 |
| Losses | 7 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 5, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Tlaxcala
1:1
Mar 27, 2023 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Alacranes de Durango
1:2
Aug 2, 2022 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Tlaxcala
3:0
Mar 20, 2004 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Alacranes de Durango
1:2
Oct 11, 2003 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Tlaxcala
3:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alacranes de Durango Compare
Top Goalscorer Cantu E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Tlaxcala Compare
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alacranes de Durango 30 / 100
Tlaxcala 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alacranes de Durango Tlaxcala
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Alacranes de Durango Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Alacranes de Durango found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (32 games).
Tlaxcala has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.
Alacranes de Durango went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alacranes de Durango VS Tlaxcala
2.13 Goals Scored 2.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Alacranes de Durango
(Home) 08 Nov
Leones Negros
2 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
06 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 0 Leones Negros
01 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
3 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
24 Oct
Venados FC
3 : 2 Alacranes de Durango
18 Oct
Alacranes de Durango
5 : 0 Tapatio
Page 1 of 7
06 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 0 Leones Negros
01 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
3 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
18 Oct
Alacranes de Durango
5 : 0 Tapatio
04 Oct
Alacranes de Durango
4 : 2 Zacatecas Mineros
18 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
2 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Page 1 of 4
Tlaxcala
(Away) 08 Nov
Atletico La Paz
3 : 3 Tlaxcala
05 Nov
Tlaxcala
0 : 1 Atletico La Paz
31 Oct
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
0 : 2 Tlaxcala
25 Oct
Tlaxcala
2 : 0 Correcaminos
17 Oct
Atletico La Paz
2 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
08 Nov
Atletico La Paz
3 : 3 Tlaxcala
31 Oct
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
0 : 2 Tlaxcala
17 Oct
Atletico La Paz
2 : 2 Tlaxcala
04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico La Paz | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36:18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 34:20 | 30 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 27:15 | 25 |
| 5 | Cancun | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28:18 | 25 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 31:25 | 25 |
| 7 | Alacranes de Durango | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21:15 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 29:27 | 22 |
| 9 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 15:25 | 22 |
| 10 | Zacatecas Mineros | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26:26 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 25:28 | 18 |
| 12 | Correcaminos | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21:24 | 17 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 23:32 | 16 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15:25 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17:24 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 11:44 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
