Sport Picks
Alacranes de Durango vs Tlaxcala
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango 
Match Events
8'
8'
Hernandez E.
(Penalty)
28'
28'
Flores B.
45'
45'
Flores S.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
30%
41%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tlaxcala
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Alacranes de Durango lately — more wins on the board than Tlaxcala.
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Tlaxcala taking it.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 18%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alacranes de Durango | Tlaxcala |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 17 | 7 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 6 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.68 | 1.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.71 | 1.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 5, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Tlaxcala
1:1
Mar 27, 2023 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Alacranes de Durango
1:2
Aug 2, 2022 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Tlaxcala
3:0
Mar 20, 2004 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Alacranes de Durango
1:2
Oct 11, 2003 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Tlaxcala
3:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alacranes de Durango Compare
Top Goalscorer Cantu E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Tlaxcala Compare
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alacranes de Durango 28 / 100
Tlaxcala 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alacranes de Durango Tlaxcala
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tlaxcala Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Alacranes de Durango found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).
Tlaxcala has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Alacranes de Durango went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alacranes de Durango VS Tlaxcala
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.38
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Alacranes de Durango
(Home) 18 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
2 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Correcaminos
0 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 7
18 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
2 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2 Leones Negros
08 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
0 : 3 Piratas
10 May
Alacranes de Durango
0 : 0 Deportiva Venados
Page 1 of 4
Tlaxcala
(Away) 20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Venados FC
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
16 Aug
Dorados de Sinaloa
2 : 2 Tlaxcala
01 Aug
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 1 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Morelia | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19:9 | 21 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23:11 | 20 |
| 3 | Leones Negros | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19:12 | 17 |
| 4 | Zacatecas Mineros | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21:15 | 17 |
| 5 | Piratas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 6 | Cancun | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:11 | 14 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:14 | 14 |
| 8 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17:13 | 13 |
| 9 | Venados FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22:19 | 13 |
| 10 | Correcaminos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18:18 | 12 |
| 11 | Alacranes de Durango | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6:9 | 11 |
| 12 | Jaiba Brava | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:15 | 11 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8:18 | 10 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14:21 | 8 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:16 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5:28 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
