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Alaves C vs Zarautz KE Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Saenz I.
30' Event
Rufo D.
37' Event
Rufo D.

AI Match Summary

Alaves C in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alaves C.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Alaves C
20%
Draws
29%
Zarautz KE
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alaves C

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Alaves C lately — more wins on the board than Zarautz KE.
  • Alaves C are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Alaves C Clean Sheet 68%
Zarautz KE Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves C Zarautz KE
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 7
Draws 7 5
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 2.07 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.17
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Zarautz KE
5:1
Dec 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Zarautz KE vs Alaves C
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves C Compare

Top Goalscorer Rufo D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Saenz I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Zarautz KE Compare

Top Goalscorer Larranaga J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.65

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves C 95 / 100
Zarautz KE 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves C Zarautz KE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alaves C Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves C scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Zarautz KE's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Alaves C stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alaves C VS Zarautz KE
1.75 Goals Scored 0.83
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 33%
38% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves C

(Home)
04 Oct
Alaves C
5 : 1
Sodupe
26 Sept
Alaves C
1 : 2
Touring KE
19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
Alaves C
12 Sept
Alaves C
3 : 0
Amurrio Club
05 Sept
Eibar C
1 : 1
Alaves C
Page 1 of 6

Zarautz KE

(Away)
09 May
Zarautz KE
0 : 1
Derio
03 May
Zamudio
0 : 2
Zarautz KE
25 Apr
Touring KE
2 : 2
Zarautz KE
19 Apr
Zarautz KE
0 : 1
Santurtzi
11 Apr
Alaves C
5 : 1
Zarautz KE
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)