Sport Picks
Alianza vs Real Santander
Colombia
Copa Colombia Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar 
Match Events
3'
3'
Munoz J.
38'
38'
Munoz J.
83'
83'
Valoyes J.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 3-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
20%
46%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Real Santander
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Alianza come out ahead of Real Santander on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Real Santander's way, sitting at 50%.
- Alianza have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Alianza, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Alianza here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Alianza Clean Sheet 16%
Real Santander Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alianza | Real Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 4 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 13 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 0.89 | 0.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.69 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 16, 2026 Copa Colombia
Alianza vs Real Santander
3:0
Feb 23, 2023 Copa Colombia
Real Santander vs Alianza
1:0
Feb 15, 2023 Copa Colombia
Alianza vs Real Santander
4:1
Apr 28, 2017 Copa Colombia
Alianza vs Real Santander
3:0
Apr 12, 2017 Copa Colombia
Real Santander vs Alianza
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alianza Compare
Top Goalscorer Munoz J.
2 Goals Assists Leader Valoyes J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34
Real Santander Compare
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alianza 23 / 100
Real Santander 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alianza Real Santander
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Real Santander Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Real Santander has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.
Alianza's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Recent resilience: Alianza stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alianza VS Real Santander
0.5 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Alianza
(Home) 19 Sept
Alianza
1 : 4 Santa Fe
16 Sept
Chico
1 : 2 Alianza
13 Sept
Alianza
1 : 0 Junior
10 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Alianza
03 Sept
America De Cali
3 : 0 Alianza
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Alianza
1 : 4 Santa Fe
13 Sept
Alianza
1 : 0 Junior
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5 Atl. Nacional
22 Aug
Alianza
0 : 0 Dep. Pereira
09 Aug
Alianza
2 : 3 Bucaramanga
Page 1 of 3
Real Santander
(Away) 22 Sept
Real Santander
0 : 0 Orsomarso
13 Sept
Boca Juniors de Cali
2 : 0 Real Santander
05 Sept
Quindio
0 : 0 Real Santander
29 Aug
Real Santander
3 : 1 Inter Palmira
24 Aug
Real Santander
1 : 0 Independiente Valle del Cauca
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Boca Juniors de Cali
2 : 0 Real Santander
05 Sept
Quindio
0 : 0 Real Santander
06 Aug
Atletico F.C.
2 : 2 Real Santander
26 Jul
Cartagena
5 : 1 Real Santander
16 May
Alianza
3 : 0 Real Santander
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dep. Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | 12 |
| 2 | Alianza | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors de Cali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8:7 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1:13 | 0 |
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millonarios | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14:5 | 10 |
| 2 | Llaneros | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:2 | 9 |
| 3 | Chico | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:3 | 5 |
| 4 | Patriotas | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:7 | 2 |
| 5 | Atletico F.C. | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:16 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Medellin | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 2 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5:3 | 5 |
| 3 | Leones | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 4 | Cucuta | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 5 | Orsomarso | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3:5 | 3 |
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dep. Pereira | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4:2 | 8 |
| 2 | Real Cundinamarca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:4 | 7 |
| 3 | Aguilas Doradas | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 4 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 5 | Independiente Valle del Cauca | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:10 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)
