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Almeria vs Castellon Prediction & H2H Stats

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LaLiga2 2025/2026 UD Almería Stadium, Almería
Our Tip

Match Events

37'
Chirino D.
41' Event
Embarba A.
Assist: Lopy D.
57' Event
Calatrava A.
Assist: Gerenabarrena B.

AI Match Summary

Almeria in this LaLiga2 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Almeria
15%
Draws
47%
Castellon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castellon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Almeria lately — more wins on the board than Castellon.
  • Model gives Castellon a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Almeria have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Almeria, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Almeria Clean Sheet 20%
Castellon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Almeria Castellon
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 15
Draws 3 8
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.66 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2026 LaLiga2
Almeria vs Castellon
3:2
Jun 6, 2026 LaLiga2
Castellon vs Almeria
1:1
Apr 2, 2026 LaLiga2
Castellon vs Almeria
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 LaLiga2
Almeria vs Castellon
1:0
Apr 18, 2025 LaLiga2
Castellon vs Almeria
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Almeria Compare

Top Goalscorer Embarba A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Munoz A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Castellon Compare

Top Goalscorer Calatrava A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sienra A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Almeria 24 / 100
Castellon 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Almeria Castellon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Almeria scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Castellon has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Almeria has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Almeria VS Castellon
2 Goals Scored 1.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Almeria

(Home)
27 Sept
Mallorca
0 : 1
Almeria
20 Sept
Almeria
2 : 0
Celta Vigo B
12 Sept
Cordoba
0 : 2
Almeria
06 Sept
Almeria
3 : 2
Cadiz
29 Aug
Sabadell
1 : 0
Almeria
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Castellon

(Away)
28 Sept
Leganes
0 : 2
Castellon
19 Sept
Castellon
5 : 0
Tenerife
12 Sept
Girona
1 : 2
Castellon
06 Sept
Castellon
2 : 0
Albacete
31 Aug
Celta Vigo B
1 : 2
Castellon
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Almeria 4
Castellon 3
Malaga 2
Las Palmas 1
Final
Almeria 1
Malaga 2