Sport Picks

Argentina

Torneo Federal Estadio José María Minella, Mar del Plata

Alvarado

1 - 0

Circulo Deportivo

Our Tip

Match Events

27'

Grahl F.

33'

Opazo D.

39'

Rojas F.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alvarado in this Torneo Federal matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alvarado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Alvarado

Draws

Circulo Deportivo

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Alvarado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Alvarado lately — more wins on the board than Circulo Deportivo.
Win probability leans Alvarado's way, sitting at 90%.
Regular Torneo Federal form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 16%

Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 3%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 19.2%

Alvarado Clean Sheet 68%

Circulo Deportivo Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alvarado	Circulo Deportivo
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	9	6
Draws	14	11
Losses	7	12
Goals Scored	1.25	0.25
Goals Conceded	0.5	0.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Torneo Federal

Alvarado vs Circulo Deportivo

1:0

Apr 18, 2026 Torneo Federal

Circulo Deportivo vs Alvarado

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alvarado Compare

Top Goalscorer Cervera G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Circulo Deportivo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.23

Avg xA / game 0.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alvarado 95 / 100

Circulo Deportivo 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alvarado Circulo Deportivo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALV Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Circulo Deportivo has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Alvarado has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Alvarado scored in 40% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Alvarado VS Circulo Deportivo

1.25 Goals Scored 0.25

0.5 Goals Conceded 0.5

50% Over 1.5 25%

25% Over 2.5 0%

13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alvarado

(Home)

11 Jul

Santamarina

0 : 0

Alvarado

05 Jul

Alvarado

5 : 0

Germinal

28 Jun

Villa Mitre

1 : 0

Alvarado

20 Jun

Alvarado

1 : 0

Circulo Deportivo

14 Jun

Kimberley

2 : 2

Alvarado

Page 1 of 6

Circulo Deportivo

(Away)

12 Jul

Circulo Deportivo

3 : 1

Sol de Mayo

05 Jul

Guillermo Brown

1 : 0

Circulo Deportivo

28 Jun

Circulo Deportivo

1 : 1

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

20 Jun

Alvarado

1 : 0

Circulo Deportivo

14 Jun

Circulo Deportivo

0 : 0

Santamarina

Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sportivo Belgrano	17	7	8	2	19:7	29
2	Douglas Haig	17	8	4	5	20:14	28
3	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	17	7	5	5	15:10	26
4	Defensores Belgrano Villa Ramallo	17	7	5	5	22:18	26
5	9 de Julio Rafaela	17	7	4	6	27:25	25
6	Sportivo Las Parejas	17	5	8	4	11:12	23
7	Atletico Escobar	17	6	3	8	19:27	21
8	Independiente Chivilcoy	17	4	6	7	14:21	18
9	Gimnasia E.R.	17	4	5	8	12:17	17
10	El Linqueno	17	4	4	9	13:21	16

Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)

Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	San Martin Formosa	15	8	3	4	24:19	27
2	Bartolome Mitre	15	7	5	3	13:6	26
3	Sol de America	15	8	2	5	18:12	26
4	Sarmiento de La Banda	15	7	3	5	16:14	24
5	Juventud Antoniana	15	6	4	5	16:11	22
6	Defensores de Vilelas	16	6	1	9	21:26	19
7	Boca Unidos	15	5	3	7	19:22	18
8	Tucuman Central	15	5	1	9	13:18	16
9	Sarmiento Resistencia	15	2	6	7	10:22	12

Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)

Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)

League Standings (Group 3)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cipolletti	16	7	4	5	19:15	25
2	Argentino MM	15	5	7	3	15:11	22
3	Biblioteca Atenas	15	6	4	5	12:13	22
4	Huracan Las Heras	15	6	4	5	11:13	22
5	Fundacion Amigos	15	4	8	3	17:14	20
6	Costa Brava	15	4	6	5	12:12	18
7	San Martin Mendoza	15	4	6	5	10:14	18
8	Juventud U.U.	15	3	7	5	10:10	16
9	Deportivo Rincon	15	4	4	7	12:16	16

Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)

Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)

League Standings (Group 4)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	15	7	7	1	11:4	28
2	Alvarado	16	7	6	3	19:7	27
3	Kimberley	15	6	7	2	14:8	25
4	Villa Mitre	15	5	7	3	11:5	22
5	Germinal	15	4	6	5	7:12	18
6	Sol de Mayo	15	4	5	6	12:15	17
7	Guillermo Brown	15	3	5	7	11:20	14
8	Santamarina	15	2	7	6	9:15	13
9	Circulo Deportivo	15	2	6	7	7:15	12

Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)

Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)