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Amagaju vs Etoile de L'Est

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Niyonshuti G.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2023/2024 game between Amagaju and Etoile de L'Est finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Etoile de L'Est.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Amagaju
30%
Draws
31%
Etoile de L'Est
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Amagaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Amagaju have managed 0.59 goals a game lately — Etoile de L'Est are scoring more at 0.67.
  • Model gives Amagaju a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Amagaju have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60.2%
Amagaju Clean Sheet 20%
Etoile de L'Est Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Amagaju Etoile de L'Est
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 8 5
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 0.59 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Premier League
Amagaju vs Etoile de L'Est
2:0
Apr 20, 2024 Premier League
Amagaju vs Etoile de L'Est
0:1
Dec 2, 2023 Premier League
Etoile de L'Est vs Amagaju
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Amagaju Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Etoile de L'Est Compare

Top Goalscorer Niyonshuti G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.33

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Amagaju 58 / 100
Etoile de L'Est 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Amagaju Etoile de L'Est

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Amagaju Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Etoile de L'Est's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Amagaju stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Etoile de L'Est has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Amagaju found the back of the net in 44% of recent matches (32 games).

Scoring Trends

Amagaju VS Etoile de L'Est
1 Goals Scored 0.33
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.33
63% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 33%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Amagaju

(Home)
18 Sept
Amagaju
0 : 0
Al-Merreikh
12 Sept
Gicumbi
1 : 0
Amagaju
05 Sept
Amagaju
2 : 0
Etoile de L'Est
30 May
Mukura Victory Sports
0 : 0
Amagaju
22 May
Amagaju
0 : 2
Muhanga
Page 1 of 7

Etoile de L'Est

(Away)
15 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
1 : 2
Gicumbi
12 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 0
Kigali FC
05 Sept
Amagaju
2 : 0
Etoile de L'Est
11 May
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 3
Bugesera
04 May
Police
1 : 2
Etoile de L'Est
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 APR 30 19 11 0 47:17 68
2 Rayon Sport 30 17 6 7 42:25 57
3 Musanze 30 16 5 9 34:24 53
4 Mukura Victory Sports 30 13 8 9 39:32 47
5 Kigali FC 30 12 9 9 26:25 45
6 Kiyovu 30 11 11 8 38:34 44
7 Police 30 12 3 15 35:34 39
8 Amagaju 30 10 9 11 30:31 39
9 Gasogi United 30 10 6 14 31:34 36
10 Gorilla 30 9 8 13 26:33 35
11 Marines 30 9 8 13 32:42 35
12 Muhazi United 30 7 12 11 21:29 33
13 Bugesera 30 7 11 12 37:35 32
14 Etincelles 30 8 8 14 35:44 32
15 Sunrise 30 9 5 16 25:40 32
16 Etoile de L'Est 30 9 4 17 20:39 31
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2023/2024 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2024/2025 (Qualification)