Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group C 2021/2022

Luparense FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ambrosiana play Luparense FC in the Serie D - Group C 2021/2022. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ambrosiana averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Luparense FC averaged 1.16 goals scored and 1.16 conceded. In past meetings, Ambrosiana won 3, Luparense FC won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 15, 2022 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Ambrosiana and 1.05 for Luparense FC. This points to a Ambrosiana double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%

Ambrosiana

20%

Draws

39%

Luparense FC

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ambrosiana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Ambrosiana picked up more points recently compared to Luparense FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.05 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Ambrosiana Clean Sheet 22%

Luparense FC Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ambrosiana	Luparense FC
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	10	10
Draws	7	11
Losses	13	11
Goals Scored	1.43	1.16
Goals Conceded	1.57	1.16

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2022 Serie D - Group C

Ambrosiana vs Luparense FC

Possession: 52% - 60% Cards: 0 - 2

3:2

Feb 23, 2022 Serie D - Group C

Luparense FC vs Ambrosiana

Possession: 45% - 51% Cards: 2 - 4

2:0

Apr 10, 2021 Serie D - Group C

Luparense FC vs Ambrosiana

Possession: 58% - 58% Cards: 3 - 4

1:2

Dec 13, 2020 Serie D - Group C

Ambrosiana vs Luparense FC

Possession: 53% - 55% Cards: 1 - 0

0:3

Jan 26, 2020 Serie D - Group C

Ambrosiana vs Luparense FC

Possession: 47% - 56% Cards: 0 - 4

5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ambrosiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Boix J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Trento E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Luparense FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Meneghini R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Bandeira A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ambrosiana 41 / 100

Luparense FC 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ambrosiana Luparense FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ambrosiana or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +24.2%

3.03

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ambrosiana attacking → ← attacking Luparense FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ambrosiana scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Luparense FC let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Ambrosiana went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Luparense FC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 41

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arzignano	34	21	10	3	74:32	73
2	Clodiense	34	20	12	2	53:22	72
3	Adriese	34	19	9	6	61:36	66
4	Luparense FC	34	16	10	8	60:35	58
5	Campodarsego	34	15	11	8	48:37	56
6	Caldiero Terme	34	15	6	13	58:50	51
7	Dolomiti Bellunesi	34	14	8	12	51:50	50
8	Montebelluna	34	14	7	13	57:52	49
9	Mestre	34	13	7	14	36:45	46
10	Cjarlins Muzane	34	11	12	11	51:43	45
11	Cartigliano	34	11	12	11	44:40	45
12	Este	34	10	13	11	31:42	43
13	Levico Terme	34	11	9	14	31:40	42
14	Ambrosiana	34	11	7	16	45:52	40
15	Delta Porto Tolle	34	10	6	18	43:51	36
16	Spinea	34	6	7	21	27:58	25
17	Cattolica Calcio	34	6	5	23	20:61	23
18	San Martino Speme	34	5	5	24	29:73	20