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American Samoa vs Tuvalu

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games 2019
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AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Pacific Games 2019 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
American Samoa
15%
Draws
57%
Tuvalu
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tuvalu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Tuvalu at 1 per game, American Samoa at 0.63.
  • Win probability leans American Samoa's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Pacific Games 2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
American Samoa Clean Sheet 10%
Tuvalu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric American Samoa Tuvalu
Matches Played 30 18
Wins 4 4
Draws 2 2
Losses 24 12
Goals Scored 0.63 1
Goals Conceded 6.73 5.67
Expected Goals (xG) 3.44 4.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2019 Pacific Games
American Samoa vs Tuvalu
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

American Samoa 56 / 100
Tuvalu 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
American Samoa Tuvalu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick American Samoa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tuvalu conceded in 94% of 18 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Tuvalu has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

American Samoa scored in 40% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

American Samoa VS Tuvalu
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
7.75 Goals Conceded 6.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
88% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

American Samoa

(Home)
28 Mar
American Samoa
0 : 6
Guam
25 Mar
United States Virgin Islands
5 : 2
American Samoa
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
29 Nov
American Samoa
2 : 6
Tonga
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Tuvalu

(Away)
30 Nov
Northern Mariana Islands
1 : 4
Tuvalu
27 Nov
Tonga
0 : 4
Tuvalu
20 Nov
Tuvalu
0 : 6
Vanuatu
17 Nov
Papua New Guinea
3 : 0
Tuvalu
17 Jul
New Caledonia
11 : 0
Tuvalu
Page 1 of 4

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand U23 4 3 1 0 20:1 10
2 Papua New Guinea 4 3 0 1 16:2 9
3 Vanuatu 4 2 1 1 25:2 7
4 Samoa 4 1 0 3 3:22 3
5 Tonga 4 0 0 4 0:37 0
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Caledonia 5 5 0 0 22:0 15
2 Fiji 5 3 1 1 25:7 10
3 Tahiti 5 3 0 2 19:6 9
4 Solomon Islands 5 2 1 2 30:9 7
5 American Samoa 5 0 1 4 2:36 1
6 Tuvalu 5 0 1 4 2:42 1
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)