Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavaje

Albania Albania

Kategoria e Parë Stadiumi Loni Papuciu, Fier
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Spahiu E.
77' Event
Amagba M.
Own Goal
87' Event
Amagba M.

AI Match Summary

The Kategoria e Parë game between Apolonia Fier and Besa Kavaje finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Besa Kavaje.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Apolonia Fier
28%
Draws
50%
Besa Kavaje
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Besa Kavaje

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Besa Kavaje carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Besa Kavaje's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Apolonia Fier Clean Sheet 15%
Besa Kavaje Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Apolonia Fier Besa Kavaje
Matches Played 33 32
Wins 8 14
Draws 8 6
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavaje
1:2
Dec 3, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavaje
2:0
Sep 13, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Besa Kavaje vs Apolonia Fier
1:2
Apr 24, 2025 Abissnet Superiore
Besa Kavaje vs Apolonia Fier
1:1
Mar 1, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Besa Kavaje vs Apolonia Fier
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Apolonia Fier Compare

Top Goalscorer Amagba M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Besa Kavaje Compare

Top Goalscorer Spahiu E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Apolonia Fier 23 / 100
Besa Kavaje 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Apolonia Fier Besa Kavaje

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BES Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Besa Kavaje let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Apolonia Fier found the back of the net in 58% of recent matches (33 games).

Apolonia Fier has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Apolonia Fier VS Besa Kavaje
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Apolonia Fier

(Home)
03 May
Apolonia Fier
4 : 4
Burreli
25 Apr
Iliria Kruja
2 : 1
Apolonia Fier
19 Apr
Apolonia Fier
1 : 2
Besa Kavaje
11 Apr
Korabi Peshkopi
0 : 0
Apolonia Fier
04 Apr
Kukesi
2 : 0
Apolonia Fier
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Besa Kavaje

(Away)
25 Jul
Pogradeci
1 : 1
Besa Kavaje
18 Jul
Besa Kavaje
2 : 1
Partizani
08 Jul
Besa Kavaje
1 : 0
Laci
11 May
Pogradeci
1 : 0
Besa Kavaje
07 May
Iliria Kruja
0 : 2
Besa Kavaje
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Laci33247260:2379
2Skenderbeu Korca33245457:2577
3Pogradeci33208563:3168
4Iliria Kruja3311121032:3345
5Besa Kavaje331091441:4339
6Kastrioti331161644:5739
7Burreli339101427:4537
8Korabi Peshkopi338121331:3936
9AF Luftetari337131337:4334
10Kukesi33871831:5031
11Apolonia Fier336101731:4428
12Lushnja335111726:4726
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore (Main)
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Kategoria e Parë (Relegation)