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Aracaju FC vs Coritiba SE

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 3
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aracaju FC in this Sergipano 3 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aracaju FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Aracaju FC
28%
Draws
22%
Coritiba SE
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Aracaju FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Coritiba SE haven't matched Aracaju FC's recent run of results.
  • Aracaju FC are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Aracaju FC Clean Sheet 17%
Coritiba SE Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aracaju FC Coritiba SE
Matches Played 14 14
Wins 6 1
Draws 0 1
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.25 0.5
Goals Conceded 2.25 4.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 4.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 24, 2025 Sergipano 3
Aracaju FC vs Coritiba SE
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aracaju FC 48 / 100
Coritiba SE 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aracaju FC Coritiba SE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Coritiba SE let in goals in 93% of their last 14 matches.

Attacking prowess: Aracaju FC scored in 71% of their last 14 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Difficult form: Coritiba SE registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aracaju FC VS Coritiba SE
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
2.25 Goals Conceded 4.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Aracaju FC

(Home)
11 Oct
Socorrense
8 : 2
Aracaju FC
05 Oct
Aracaju FC
0 : 2
Santa Cruz SE
01 Oct
Socorro
7 : 0
Aracaju FC
24 Sept
Aracaju FC
2 : 0
Coritiba SE
21 Sept
Forca Jovem Aquidaba
2 : 1
Aracaju FC
Page 1 of 3

Coritiba SE

(Away)
11 Oct
Socorro
3 : 0
Coritiba SE
01 Oct
Coritiba SE
1 : 0
Forca Jovem Aquidaba
24 Sept
Aracaju FC
2 : 0
Coritiba SE
20 Sept
Coritiba SE
0 : 6
Propria
17 Sept
Coritiba SE
1 : 3
Santa Cruz SE
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League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Socorro651019:416
2Propria642012:314
3Socorrense641122:713
4Santa Cruz SE62048:116
5Forca Jovem Aquidaba62045:86
6Coritiba SE61052:203
7Aracaju FC61056:210
Promotion - Sergipano 3 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Estanciano EC642012:414
2Sete de Junho63308:112
3CS Maruinense63127:510
4Botafogo ASF623111:99
5AD Boquinhense62136:87
6Amadense61054:113
7Riachao60242:122
Promotion - Sergipano 3 (Play Offs)