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Aragua vs Bolivar

Venezuela Venezuela

Liga FUTVE 2 Estadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez, Maracay
Our Tip

Match Events

59' Event
Sanchez J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga FUTVE 2 game between Aragua and Bolivar finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aragua.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Aragua
15%
Draws
32%
Bolivar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aragua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bolivar come out ahead of Aragua on wins alone.
  • Model gives Aragua a 53% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Aragua Clean Sheet 68%
Bolivar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aragua Bolivar
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 12
Draws 10 4
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.14 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Liga FUTVE 2
Aragua vs Bolivar
1:0
May 3, 2026 Liga FUTVE 2
Bolivar vs Aragua
0:0
Mar 7, 2026 Liga FUTVE 2
Aragua vs Bolivar
2:1
Sep 14, 2025 Liga FUTVE 2
Bolivar vs Aragua
1:0
Aug 3, 2025 Liga FUTVE 2
Aragua vs Bolivar
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aragua Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Bolivar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aragua 95 / 100
Bolivar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aragua Bolivar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aragua Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aragua found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Bolivar conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Aragua remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Bolivar registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aragua VS Bolivar
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aragua

(Home)
13 Sept
Aragua
2 : 1
Deportivo Miranda
09 Sept
Yaracuyanos
2 : 5
Aragua
05 Sept
Monagas B
2 : 2
Aragua
29 Aug
Aragua
2 : 0
Dynamo Puerto FC
26 Aug
Aragua
1 : 2
Yaracuyanos
Page 1 of 6

Bolivar

(Away)
13 Sept
Mineros
4 : 1
Bolivar
09 Sept
Monagas
5 : 1
Bolivar
06 Sept
Deportivo Miranda
1 : 2
Bolivar
30 Aug
Bolivar
2 : 1
Avila
26 Aug
Bolivar
1 : 3
Monagas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lara 26 17 6 3 45:20 57
2 Barquisimeto 26 13 8 5 45:27 47
3 Urena 26 12 9 5 41:28 45
4 Yaracuyanos 25 10 7 8 31:26 37
5 Zamora 2 25 9 7 9 37:35 34
6 Academia Puerto Cabello B 26 8 6 12 33:36 30
7 Atletico El Vigia 26 8 6 12 28:43 30
8 Atletico Barinas 26 8 4 14 45:55 28
9 Real Frontera 26 3 3 20 21:56 12
Promotion - Liga FUTVE 2 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monagas B 22 12 6 4 37:23 42
2 Deportivo Miranda 22 11 5 6 26:18 38
3 Bolivar 22 11 3 8 27:25 36
4 Aragua 22 9 8 5 24:16 35
5 Dynamo Puerto FC 21 6 7 8 23:24 25
6 Mineros 22 4 8 10 25:29 20
7 Maritimo de Venezuela 20 5 5 10 16:31 20
8 Avila 21 2 10 9 12:24 16
Promotion - Liga FUTVE 2 (Play Offs)