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Stadium Background

Aral vs Buxoro

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Pulatov I.
32' Event
Tabatadze T.
Assist: Cirjak F.
46'
Sub
Alijonov I. In: Rasulov M.
Out: Alijonov I.

AI Match Summary

Buxoro in this Super League 2025 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Aral
15%
Draws
27%
Buxoro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aral

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Very High Confidence
  • Aral have won more games recently than Buxoro.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Aral taking it.
  • Aral have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Buxoro, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Aral Clean Sheet 68%
Buxoro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aral Buxoro
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 21 10
Draws 3 8
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 2.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 16, 2025 Super League
Aral vs Buxoro
0:1
Nov 22, 2024 Pro Liga
Buxoro vs Aral
3:2
Sep 18, 2024 Pro Liga
Aral vs Buxoro
1:0
Jun 19, 2024 Pro Liga
Buxoro vs Aral
3:0
May 3, 2024 Pro Liga
Aral vs Buxoro
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aral Compare

Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Buxoro Compare

Top Goalscorer Tabatadze T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aral 95 / 100
Buxoro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aral Buxoro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aral's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Solid form: Aral remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Buxoro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Aral VS Buxoro
2.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aral

(Home)
05 Aug
Aral
1 : 0
Metallurg Bekabad
31 Jul
Gazalkent
0 : 2
Aral
24 Jul
Aral
3 : 1
Shortan Guzor
08 Jun
Jayxun
1 : 4
Aral
03 Jun
Aral
3 : 0
Pakhtakor II
Page 1 of 6

Buxoro

(Away)
06 Aug
Pakhtakor
2 : 2
Buxoro
01 Aug
Buxoro
2 : 1
Lok. Tashkent
27 Jul
Andijan
2 : 0
Buxoro
21 Jul
Buxoro
1 : 0
Bunyodkor
16 Jul
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1
Buxoro
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Aral 0
Buxoro 1