Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arbroath vs Dunfermline

Scotland Scotland

Championship 2025/2026 Gayfield Park, Arbroath
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Tod J.
17'
Wilkie J.
33'
Cochrane H.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-0. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Arbroath
20%
Draws
47%
Dunfermline
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dunfermline

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Arbroath haven't matched Dunfermline's recent run of results.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Dunfermline arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Arbroath, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 20%
Dunfermline Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arbroath Dunfermline
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 9 14
Draws 9 8
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.17 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Dunfermline
1:1
May 8, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Dunfermline
0:0
May 5, 2026 Championship
Dunfermline vs Arbroath
1:0
May 1, 2026 Championship
Dunfermline vs Arbroath
0:0
Feb 21, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Dunfermline
4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arbroath 32 / 100
Dunfermline 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arbroath Dunfermline

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dunfermline Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Arbroath went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Arbroath scored in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Dunfermline's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Arbroath VS Dunfermline
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arbroath

(Home)
19 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Arbroath
12 Sept
Raith
4 : 0
Arbroath
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1
Dunfermline
29 Aug
Arbroath
1 : 0
Livingston
22 Aug
Morton
1 : 2
Arbroath
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Dunfermline

(Away)
19 Sept
Morton
0 : 1
Dunfermline
12 Sept
Dunfermline
2 : 0
Queen's Park
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1
Dunfermline
28 Aug
Dunfermline
1 : 0
Raith
22 Aug
Livingston
2 : 0
Dunfermline
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
St. Mirren -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Partick -
TBD -
Arbroath 0
Dunfermline 1
Semi-finals
St. Mirren -
TBD -
Partick 3
Dunfermline 2
Final
St. Mirren 2
Partick 1