Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arda vs Lok. Plovdiv

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League 2025/2026 Arena Arda, Kardzhali
Arda Logo

Arda

4 - 0
FT
Lok. Plovdiv Logo

Lok. Plovdiv

Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Vutov A.
Assist: Shinyashiki A.
13' Event
Vutov A.
Assist: Velkovski D.
25' Event
Vutov A.
Assist: Shinyashiki A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Arda in this efbet League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Arda
20%
Draws
29%
Lok. Plovdiv
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Arda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Arda have won more games recently than Lok. Plovdiv.
  • Model gives Arda a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Arda Clean Sheet 68%
Lok. Plovdiv Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arda Lok. Plovdiv
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 6 5
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.23 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
0:1
Jul 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
May 16, 2026 efbet League
Arda vs Lok. Plovdiv
4:0
May 8, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
Apr 30, 2026 Bulgarian Cup
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arda Compare

Top Goalscorer Vutov A.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Huseynov C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Lok. Plovdiv Compare

Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arda 86 / 100
Lok. Plovdiv 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arda Lok. Plovdiv

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arda scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Lok. Plovdiv let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Arda has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arda VS Lok. Plovdiv
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arda

(Home)
19 Sept
Arda
1 : 1
Cherno More
12 Sept
CSKA Sofia
4 : 1
Arda
04 Sept
Arda
2 : 3
Botev Plovdiv
31 Aug
Arda
2 : 0
Botev Vratsa
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1
Arda
Page 1 of 6

Lok. Plovdiv

(Away)
20 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 1
CSKA Sofia
13 Sept
Botev Plovdiv
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
06 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 0
Cherno More
28 Aug
CSKA 1948 Sofia
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1
Arda
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
5 Lok. Plovdiv 36 14 13 9 36:41 55
6 Arda 36 15 9 12 42:34 54
7 Cherno More 36 14 12 10 40:34 54
8 Botev Plovdiv 36 13 7 16 49:45 46
Promotion - efbet League 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)