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Ards vs Strabane Athletic

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship
Sat, Sep 26, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ards host Strabane Athletic in the NIFL Championship. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Ards have averaged 1.45 scored and 1.23 conceded recently, against Strabane Athletic's 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 1.88 vs 1.25, favoring Ards. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Ards
30%
Draws
23%
Strabane Athletic
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ards

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ards come out ahead of Strabane Athletic on wins alone.
  • Model gives Ards a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Ards Clean Sheet 19%
Strabane Athletic Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ards Strabane Athletic
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 13 10
Draws 6 3
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.45 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.23 2.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ards 49 / 100
Strabane Athletic 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ards Strabane Athletic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ards Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Strabane Athletic let in goals in 88% of their last 26 matches.

Ards's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Difficult form: Strabane Athletic registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Solid form: Ards remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ards VS Strabane Athletic
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ards

(Home)
19 Sept
Moyola
0 : 0
Ards
12 Sept
Ards
1 : 0
Rathfriland Rangers
04 Sept
Annagh
2 : 1
Ards
28 Aug
Ards
0 : 3
Queens University
22 Aug
Ards
1 : 2
Loughgall
Page 1 of 7

Strabane Athletic

(Away)
18 Sept
Dundela
1 : 1
Strabane Athletic
11 Sept
Strabane Athletic
2 : 2
Newry City
05 Sept
Queens University
6 : 0
Strabane Athletic
28 Aug
Strabane Athletic
1 : 2
Newington FC
22 Aug
Strabane Athletic
1 : 2
Harland & Wolff
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Newington FC 8 5 2 1 20:11 17
2 Annagh 8 5 2 1 18:12 17
3 Queens University 8 5 1 2 18:6 16
4 Harland & Wolff 8 5 0 3 15:10 15
5 Glenavon 8 4 2 2 18:12 14
6 Ballinamallard 8 4 1 3 15:11 13
7 Institute 8 4 1 3 13:12 13
8 Newry City 8 3 3 2 12:14 12
9 Ards 8 3 2 3 11:11 11
10 Warrenpoint 8 3 1 4 15:14 10
11 Loughgall 8 2 4 2 11:14 10
12 Dundela 8 1 5 2 16:18 8
13 Moyola 8 2 2 4 9:17 8
14 Strabane Athletic 8 1 2 5 9:19 5
15 Armagh 8 0 4 4 8:14 4
16 Rathfriland Rangers 8 1 0 7 6:19 3
Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group)
Relegation - NIFL Championship (Relegation Group)