Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2023/2024

Alcudia

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Arenal play Alcudia in the Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Arenal averaged 0.81 goals scored and 1.78 conceded. Alcudia averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. In past meetings, Arenal won 0, Alcudia won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 5, 2024 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Arenal and 1.05 for Alcudia. This points to a Alcudia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%

Arenal

28%

Draws

51%

Alcudia

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Alcudia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence

Arenal picked up more points recently compared to Alcudia.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.05 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 77%

Over 2.5 Goals 60%

Over 3.5 Goals 36%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Arenal Clean Sheet 22%

Alcudia Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 69%

Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Arenal	Alcudia
Matches Played	32	40
Wins	4	16
Draws	9	7
Losses	19	17
Goals Scored	0.81	1.32
Goals Conceded	1.78	1.7

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Arenal vs Alcudia

Possession: 60% - 41% Cards: 1 - 1

2:2

Jan 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Alcudia vs Arenal

Possession: 44% - 40% Cards: 1 - 4

2:1

Apr 16, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Arenal vs Alcudia

Possession: 58% - 44% Cards: 1 - 2

1:3

Nov 28, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Alcudia vs Arenal

Possession: 50% - 50% Cards: 0 - 0

2:1

Apr 10, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Arenal vs Alcudia

Possession: 54% - 54% Cards: 4 - 0

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arenal Compare

Top Goalscorer Arrom T.

1 Goals

Assists Leader de Dios C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Alcudia Compare

Top Goalscorer Jaume M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Ripoll M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenal 23 / 100

Alcudia 49 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Arenal Alcudia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Alcudia or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +61.5%

7.69

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arenal attacking → ← attacking Alcudia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arenal scored in 56% of their last 32 games.

Alcudia let in goals in 75% of their last 40 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Arenal went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Alcudia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 55

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SD Ibiza	34	27	6	1	73:15	87
2	Mallorca B	34	22	8	4	72:16	74
3	UD Poblense	34	22	8	4	63:15	74
4	Platges de Calvia	34	18	9	7	47:22	63
5	Manacor	34	19	5	10	59:40	62
6	Santanyi	34	16	8	10	46:23	56
7	Constancia	34	15	8	11	44:32	53
8	Alcudia	34	14	7	13	54:44	49
9	Llosetense	34	14	7	13	37:38	49
10	Mercadal	34	12	9	13	33:37	45
11	Binissalem	34	12	7	15	35:38	43
12	Portmany	34	11	9	14	38:38	42
13	Collerense	34	10	8	16	39:55	38
14	Felanitx	34	10	5	19	37:53	35
15	Alaior	34	8	7	19	27:51	31
16	Arenal	34	6	8	20	28:59	26
17	Soller	34	4	5	25	26:98	17
18	Inter Manacor	34	2	4	28	22:106	10