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Arlesey vs East Thurrock Utd

England England

FA Trophy 2014/2015
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Arlesey play East Thurrock Utd in the FA Trophy 2014/2015. It looks like a close match. Recently, Arlesey averaged 0.87 goals scored and 2.3 conceded. East Thurrock Utd averaged 1.07 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. In past meetings, Arlesey won 0, East Thurrock Utd won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 18, 2014 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Arlesey and 2.19 for East Thurrock Utd. This points to a East Thurrock Utd double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Arlesey
15%
Draws
51%
East Thurrock Utd
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: East Thurrock Utd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Arlesey picked up more points recently compared to East Thurrock Utd.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 2.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Arlesey Clean Sheet 10%
East Thurrock Utd Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arlesey East Thurrock Utd
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 8
Draws 5 3
Losses 20 19
Goals Scored 0.87 1.07
Goals Conceded 2.3 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.50 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2014 FA Trophy
Arlesey vs East Thurrock Utd
1:2
Nov 15, 2014 FA Trophy
East Thurrock Utd vs Arlesey
4:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arlesey 33 / 100
East Thurrock Utd 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arlesey East Thurrock Utd

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: East Thurrock Utd or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arlesey attacking → ← attacking East Thurrock Utd

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arlesey scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

East Thurrock Utd let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Arlesey went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

East Thurrock Utd lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

20 Points in last 5 27
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
3.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75