Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atalanta vs Chelsea

Europe Europe

Champions League 2025/2026 New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Sub
Bellanova R. In: Zappacosta D.
Out: Bellanova R.
25' Event
Joao Pedro
Assist: James R.
29'
Chalobah T.

AI Match Summary

Atalanta in this Champions League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atalanta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Atalanta
20%
Draws
38%
Chelsea
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Atalanta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Chelsea lately — more wins on the board than Atalanta.
  • Win probability leans Atalanta's way, sitting at 42%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Champions League 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Atalanta Clean Sheet 20%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atalanta Chelsea
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 13
Draws 8 3
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 9, 2025 Champions League
Atalanta vs Chelsea
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atalanta Compare

Top Goalscorer Scamacca G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader De Ketelaere C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Chelsea Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Pedro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atalanta 42 / 100
Chelsea 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atalanta Chelsea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chelsea's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

Atalanta scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Atalanta remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atalanta VS Chelsea
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atalanta

(Home)
26 Jul
Atalanta
3 : 2
Arezzo
22 May
Fiorentina
1 : 1
Atalanta
17 May
Atalanta
0 : 1
Bologna
10 May
AC Milan
2 : 3
Atalanta
02 May
Atalanta
0 : 0
Genoa
Page 1 of 6

Chelsea

(Away)
28 Jul
Chelsea
6 : 4
Western Sydney Wanderers
24 May
Sunderland
2 : 1
Chelsea
19 May
Chelsea
2 : 1
Tottenham
16 May
Chelsea
0 : 1
Manchester City
09 May
Liverpool
1 : 1
Chelsea
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal880023:424
2Bayern Munich870122:821
3Liverpool860220:818
4Tottenham852117:717
5Barcelona851222:1416
6Chelsea851217:1016
7Sporting CP851217:1116
8Manchester City851215:916
9Real Madrid850321:1215
10Inter850315:715
11PSG842221:1114
12Newcastle Utd842217:714
13Juventus834114:1013
14Atl. Madrid841317:1513
15Atalanta841310:1013
16Bayer Leverkusen833213:1412
17Dortmund832319:1711
18Olympiacos Piraeus832310:1411
19Club Brugge831415:1710
20Galatasaray83149:1110
21Monaco82428:1410
22Qarabag Agdam831413:2110
23Bodo/Glimt823314:159
24Benfica830510:129
25Marseille830511:149
26Pafos82338:119
27Royale Union SG83058:179
28PSV822416:168
29Ath Bilbao82249:148
30Napoli82249:158
31FC Copenhagen822412:218
32Ajax82068:216
33Eintracht Frankfurt811610:214
34Slavia Prague80355:193
35Villarreal80175:181
36Kairat Almaty80177:221
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)