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Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) vs Nautico FC

Brazil Brazil

Roraimense
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) play Nautico FC in the Roraimense. It looks like a close match. Recently, Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) averaged 1.1 goals scored and 2.27 conceded. Nautico FC averaged 1.47 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) won 2, Nautico FC won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 28, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) and 1.13 for Nautico FC. This points to a Nautico FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima)
15%
Draws
49%
Nautico FC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nautico FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) picked up more points recently compared to Nautico FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) Clean Sheet 21%
Nautico FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) Nautico FC
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 7 10
Draws 4 8
Losses 19 16
Goals Scored 1.1 1.47
Goals Conceded 2.27 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Roraimense
Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) vs Nautico FC
1:0
Mar 19, 2025 Roraimense
Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) vs Nautico FC
5:1
Mar 20, 2024 Roraimense
Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) vs Nautico FC
0:2
Mar 21, 2023 Roraimense
Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) vs Nautico FC
0:4
Mar 22, 2022 Roraimense
Nautico FC vs Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima)
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) 37 / 100
Nautico FC 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) Nautico FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Nautico FC or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) attacking → ← attacking Nautico FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Nautico FC let in goals in 76% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Nautico FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 38
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.25
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sao Raimundo RR862028:520
2Monte Roraima853018:818
3Gremio Atletico Sampaio852121:817
4Bare850317:715
5River Esporte Clube843122:815
6Progresso82068:256
7Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima)82067:176
8Nautico FC81163:174
9Atl. Roraima80175:341