Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atletico de Porcuna vs El Palo

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Ruiz O.
76' Event
Cornejo R.
85' Event
Cornejo R.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 game between Atletico de Porcuna and El Palo finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico de Porcuna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Atletico de Porcuna
28%
Draws
22%
El Palo
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Atletico de Porcuna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • El Palo haven't matched Atletico de Porcuna's recent run of results.
  • Atletico de Porcuna are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Atletico de Porcuna Clean Sheet 68%
El Palo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico de Porcuna El Palo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 6
Draws 4 6
Losses 13 18
Goals Scored 1.38 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
El Palo vs Atletico de Porcuna
1:2
Dec 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs El Palo
3:0
Feb 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
El Palo vs Atletico de Porcuna
2:2
Sep 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs El Palo
0:1
Mar 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
El Palo vs Atletico de Porcuna
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico de Porcuna Compare

Top Goalscorer Cornejo R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ruiz O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

El Palo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico de Porcuna 59 / 100
El Palo 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico de Porcuna El Palo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ATL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

El Palo has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Atletico de Porcuna scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Difficult form: El Palo registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atletico de Porcuna VS El Palo
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico de Porcuna

(Home)
10 May
Motril
2 : 1
Atletico de Porcuna
03 May
Atletico de Porcuna
1 : 0
Torre del Mar
25 Apr
El Palo
1 : 2
Atletico de Porcuna
19 Apr
Atletico de Porcuna
2 : 3
UD San Pedro
12 Apr
CD Alhaurino
3 : 0
Atletico de Porcuna
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El Palo

(Away)
10 May
El Palo
0 : 2
Churriana de la Vega
03 May
CD Torreperogil
0 : 2
El Palo
25 Apr
El Palo
1 : 2
Atletico de Porcuna
19 Apr
Torre del Mar
1 : 1
El Palo
12 Apr
El Palo
0 : 1
Motril
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Mijas Las Lagunas34199646:2466
2Motril341811555:2965
3Torre del Mar341413737:2655
4Arenas Armilla341591038:2954
5Churriana de la Vega3414101032:4052
6Marbelli341491136:2851
7Ciudad de Torredonjimeno3413111039:3850
8UD San Pedro3413101139:3749
9Atletico de Porcuna341441641:3946
10Huetor Vega341291343:4245
11Granada CF B3410141049:4744
12CD Alhaurino3411101341:4143
13Melilla B349121330:3239
14Mancha349101530:3837
15Huetor Tajar349101540:4437
16Martos349101532:4837
17CD Torreperogil34961924:4533
18El Palo34691928:5327
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)