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Atletico de Porcuna vs Torre del Mar Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Burgos J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 game between Atletico de Porcuna and Torre del Mar finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico de Porcuna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Atletico de Porcuna
15%
Draws
34%
Torre del Mar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atletico de Porcuna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atletico de Porcuna come out ahead of Torre del Mar on wins alone.
  • Torre del Mar are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Atletico de Porcuna Clean Sheet 14%
Torre del Mar Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico de Porcuna Torre del Mar
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 11
Draws 4 10
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.27 1
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.74
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Torre del Mar
1:0
Jan 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Torre del Mar vs Atletico de Porcuna
2:1
May 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Torre del Mar vs Atletico de Porcuna
0:0
Dec 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Torre del Mar
3:0
Feb 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Torre del Mar
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico de Porcuna Compare

Top Goalscorer Burgos J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Torre del Mar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico de Porcuna 23 / 100
Torre del Mar 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico de Porcuna Torre del Mar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Torre del Mar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico de Porcuna found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Torre del Mar registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Torre del Mar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Atletico de Porcuna VS Torre del Mar
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico de Porcuna

(Home)
04 Oct
Atletico de Porcuna
2 : 3
Churriana de la Vega
27 Sept
Almeria B
4 : 0
Atletico de Porcuna
20 Sept
Atletico de Porcuna
2 : 1
Granada CF B
12 Sept
Malaga B
6 : 1
Atletico de Porcuna
06 Sept
Atletico de Porcuna
1 : 0
Cantoria
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Torre del Mar

(Away)
04 Oct
Torre del Mar
0 : 1
Arenas Armilla
27 Sept
Marbelli
1 : 0
Torre del Mar
20 Sept
Torre del Mar
1 : 2
Melilla
13 Sept
Motril
1 : 1
Torre del Mar
06 Sept
Torre del Mar
1 : 0
Churriana de la Vega
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 19 9 6 46:24 66
2 Motril 34 18 11 5 55:29 65
3 Torre del Mar 34 14 13 7 37:26 55
4 Arenas Armilla 34 15 9 10 38:29 54
5 Churriana de la Vega 34 14 10 10 32:40 52
6 Marbelli 34 14 9 11 36:28 51
7 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 13 11 10 39:38 50
8 UD San Pedro 34 13 10 11 39:37 49
9 Atletico de Porcuna 34 14 4 16 41:39 46
10 Huetor Vega 34 12 9 13 43:42 45
11 Granada CF B 34 10 14 10 49:47 44
12 CD Alhaurino 34 11 10 13 41:41 43
13 Melilla B 34 9 12 13 30:32 39
14 Mancha 34 9 10 15 30:38 37
15 Huetor Tajar 34 9 10 15 40:44 37
16 Martos 34 9 10 15 32:48 37
17 CD Torreperogil 34 9 6 19 24:45 33
18 El Palo 34 6 9 19 28:53 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)