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Atletico La Paz vs Piratas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Guaycura, La Paz
Sun, Nov 15, 2026
VS
03:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Piratas have shipped 1 goals a game lately, while Atletico La Paz have conceded 1.21 and scored 2.04. Head-to-head, Atletico La Paz have won 1 to Piratas's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Aug 15, 2026, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.88 vs 1.69, favoring Atletico La Paz. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Atletico La Paz
35%
Draws
29%
Piratas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Atletico La Paz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Atletico La Paz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Atletico La Paz have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Atletico La Paz, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 13%
Piratas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico La Paz Piratas
Matches Played 28 17
Wins 13 7
Draws 9 6
Losses 6 4
Goals Scored 2.04 1.71
Goals Conceded 1.21 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Piratas
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico La Paz 30 / 100
Piratas 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico La Paz Piratas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico La Paz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico La Paz scored in 93% of their last 28 games.

Atletico La Paz went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Piratas conceded in 65% of 17 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Atletico La Paz VS Piratas
2.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico La Paz

(Home)
08 Nov
Atletico La Paz
3 : 3
Tlaxcala
05 Nov
Tlaxcala
0 : 1
Atletico La Paz
31 Oct
Atletico La Paz
3 : 0
Dorados de Sinaloa
25 Oct
Jaiba Brava
1 : 3
Atletico La Paz
17 Oct
Atletico La Paz
2 : 2
Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6

Piratas

(Away)
09 Nov
Piratas
1 : 1
Cancun
06 Nov
Cancun
1 : 1
Piratas
01 Nov
Piratas
1 : 1
Tapatio
25 Oct
Dorados de Sinaloa
0 : 5
Piratas
18 Oct
Piratas
3 : 0
Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Atletico La Paz 4
Tlaxcala 3
Piratas 2
Cancun 2
Leones Negros 2
Alacranes de Durango 2
Club Atletico Morelia 4
Venados FC 2
Semi-finals
Atletico La Paz -
Piratas -
Leones Negros -
Club Atletico Morelia -
Final
TBD -
TBD -