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Auckland City vs Western Springs

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2024 Kiwitea Street
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Auckland City play Western Springs in the National League 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Auckland City averaged 1.87 goals scored and 1.54 conceded. Western Springs averaged 2.09 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. In past meetings, Auckland City won 1, Western Springs won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 30, 2025 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Auckland City and 1.56 for Western Springs. This points to a Auckland City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Auckland City
15%
Draws
38%
Western Springs
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Auckland City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Auckland City picked up more points recently compared to Western Springs.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 72%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 72%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 15%
Western Springs Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland City Western Springs
Matches Played 39 23
Wins 24 12
Draws 6 1
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.87 2.09
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 30, 2025 National League
Western Springs vs Auckland City
1:3
Nov 3, 2024 National League
Auckland City vs Western Springs
1:2
Jul 8, 2023 Chatham Cup
Western Springs vs Auckland City
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland City Compare

Top Goalscorer Lobo N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Western Springs Compare

Top Goalscorer Drake R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tobin P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland City 45 / 100
Western Springs 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland City Western Springs

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Auckland City or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.4%
1.52
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Auckland City attacking → ← attacking Western Springs

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland City scored in 87% of their last 39 games.

Western Springs let in goals in 78% of their last 23 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Auckland City went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Western Springs lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

78 Points in last 5 37
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Birkenhead962123:1620
2Auckland City961220:1019
3Western Springs960325:1618
4Napier City952221:1417
5Wellington Phoenix 2941416:1913
6Wellington Olympic932417:1511
7Coastal Spirit932418:2011
8Cashmere Technical923416:189
9Eastern Suburbs91268:175
10Western Suburbs91179:284