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Auckland FC vs Adelaide Utd

Australia Australia

A-League 2025/2026 Go Media Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Brook L.
Assist: Howieson C.
51'
Sub
May G. In: Rogerson L.
Out: May G.
57'
Sub
Howieson C. In: Pijnaker N.
Out: Howieson C.

AI Match Summary

The A-League 2025/2026 game between Auckland FC and Adelaide Utd finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Auckland FC
20%
Draws
38%
Adelaide Utd
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Auckland FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Auckland FC come out ahead of Adelaide Utd on wins alone.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Auckland FC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Auckland FC Clean Sheet 15%
Adelaide Utd Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland FC Adelaide Utd
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 13
Draws 9 8
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.63 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Auckland FC
0:3
May 9, 2026 A-League
Auckland FC vs Adelaide Utd
1:1
Apr 3, 2026 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Auckland FC
1:1
Nov 1, 2025 A-League
Auckland FC vs Adelaide Utd
2:1
Mar 1, 2025 A-League
Auckland FC vs Adelaide Utd
4:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Brook L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Adelaide Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Crawford H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland FC 41 / 100
Adelaide Utd 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland FC Adelaide Utd

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland FC scored in 97% of their last 29 games.

Adelaide Utd's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Auckland FC went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Auckland FC VS Adelaide Utd
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Adelaide Utd-
TBD-
Auckland FC2
Melbourne City1
Newcastle Jets-
TBD-
Melbourne Victory0
Sydney FC1
Semi-finals
Adelaide Utd1
Auckland FC4
Newcastle Jets2
Sydney FC3
Final
Auckland FC1
Sydney FC0