Sport Picks
Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic
New Zealand
Chatham Cup 2025 North Harbour Stadium, Auckland 
Match Events
4'
4'
Watson H.
17'
17'
Vollenhoven D.
34'
34'
Prins I.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-4, with Wellington Olympic advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
22%
28%
50%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Wellington Olympic
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Wellington Olympic carry the better recent record into this one.
- Wellington Olympic are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Wellington Olympic arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Wellington Olympic, who have won 3 of the last 4 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Wellington Olympic have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Auckland United Clean Sheet 10%
Wellington Olympic Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Auckland United | Wellington Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 43 |
| Wins | 12 | 28 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 12 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.75 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 30, 2025 National League
Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic
0:3
Sep 7, 2025 Chatham Cup
Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic
2:4
Oct 21, 2023 National League
Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic
1:3
Nov 5, 2022 National League
Wellington Olympic vs Auckland United
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Auckland United Compare
Top Goalscorer Vollenhoven D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Curry B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Wellington Olympic Compare
Top Goalscorer Watson H.
2 Goals Assists Leader Prins I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Auckland United 22 / 100
Wellington Olympic 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Auckland United Wellington Olympic
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick WEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Wellington Olympic has conceded goals in 86% of their last 43 outings.
H2H data points to 4.25 goals as a typical output.
Attacking prowess: Auckland United scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.
Wellington Olympic lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Auckland United VS Wellington Olympic
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Auckland United
(Home) 04 Jul
Auckland United
3 : 1 Cambridge
07 Dec
Auckland FC 2
3 : 0 Auckland United
30 Nov
Auckland United
0 : 3 Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Western Suburbs
1 : 0 Auckland United
15 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 2 Birkenhead
Page 1 of 6
04 Jul
Auckland United
3 : 1 Cambridge
30 Nov
Auckland United
0 : 3 Wellington Olympic
15 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 2 Birkenhead
01 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 0 Coastal Spirit
18 Oct
Auckland United
0 : 0 Wellington Phoenix 2
Page 1 of 4
Wellington Olympic
(Away) 13 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3 Auckland City
06 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1 Miramar
30 Nov
Auckland United
0 : 3 Wellington Olympic
21 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3 Christchurch
15 Nov
Auckland FC 2
2 : 1 Wellington Olympic
Page 1 of 9
30 Nov
Auckland United
0 : 3 Wellington Olympic
15 Nov
Auckland FC 2
2 : 1 Wellington Olympic
26 Oct
Birkenhead
2 : 4 Wellington Olympic
12 Oct
Coastal Spirit
1 : 3 Wellington Olympic
27 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
3 : 5 Wellington Olympic
Page 1 of 5
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC2
Western Springs1
Manukau United1
Eastern Suburbs3
Western Suburbs4
Palmerston North United FC1
Napier City2
Wellington Olympic3
Wanaka FC0
Christchurch3
Auckland United7
Melville1
Dunedin City Royals0
Nelson Suburbs FC1
Birkenhead7
Waiheke United0
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC0
Eastern Suburbs2
Western Suburbs2
Wellington Olympic3
Christchurch2
Auckland United4
Nelson Suburbs FC2
Birkenhead1
Semi-finals
Eastern Suburbs1
Wellington Olympic2
Auckland United3
Nelson Suburbs FC0
Final
Wellington Olympic4
Auckland United2