Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Auxerre vs PSG

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Ahamada N. In: Matondo R.
Out: Ahamada N.
61'
Sub
Mbaye I. In: Doue D.
Out: Mbaye I.
61'
Sub
Ramos G. In: Dembele O.
Out: Ramos G.

AI Match Summary

PSG in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored PSG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Auxerre
30%
Draws
33%
PSG
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Auxerre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • PSG have won more games recently than Auxerre.
  • Auxerre are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • PSG have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Auxerre Clean Sheet 20%
PSG Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auxerre PSG
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 8 19
Draws 9 4
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.38 2.14
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 23, 2026 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs PSG
0:1
Sep 27, 2025 Ligue 1
PSG vs Auxerre
2:0
May 17, 2025 Ligue 1
PSG vs Auxerre
3:1
Dec 6, 2024 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs PSG
0:0
May 21, 2023 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs PSG
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auxerre Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

PSG Compare

Top Goalscorer Barcola B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auxerre 58 / 100
PSG 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auxerre PSG

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Auxerre Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auxerre found the back of the net in 65% of recent matches (26 games).

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Auxerre went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

PSG's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Auxerre VS PSG
1.5 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Auxerre

(Home)
15 Aug
Werder Bremen
0 : 1
Auxerre
08 Aug
Auxerre
1 : 1
Troyes
01 Aug
Sochaux
1 : 1
Auxerre
25 Jul
Auxerre
1 : 2
Orleans
18 Jul
Auxerre
5 : 2
St. Maur Lusitanos
Page 1 of 6

PSG

(Away)
16 Aug
Lens
1 : 0
PSG
12 Aug
PSG
2 : 1
Aston Villa
08 Aug
PSG
1 : 1
Manchester United
05 Aug
Mallorca
3 : 0
PSG
30 May
PSG
2 : 1
Arsenal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)