Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Avai vs Chapecoense-SC

Brazil Brazil

Copa Sul-Sudeste Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada), Florianópolis
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Jean L.
36'
Joao Paulo
37' Event
Jean L.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Avai
20%
Draws
70%
Chapecoense-SC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chapecoense-SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Avai come out ahead of Chapecoense-SC on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Avai have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Avai, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Avai Clean Sheet 23%
Chapecoense-SC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avai Chapecoense-SC
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 8
Draws 5 6
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.24 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Chapecoense-SC vs Avai
3:1
Jun 3, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Avai vs Chapecoense-SC
3:0
Apr 8, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Chapecoense-SC vs Avai
2:1
Jan 22, 2026 Catarinense
Avai vs Chapecoense-SC
1:1
Sep 26, 2025 Serie B
Chapecoense-SC vs Avai
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avai Compare

Top Goalscorer Jean L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Wallison
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Chapecoense-SC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avai 33 / 100
Chapecoense-SC 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avai Chapecoense-SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chapecoense-SC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chapecoense-SC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.

Avai's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Avai has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Avai VS Chapecoense-SC
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Avai

(Home)
20 Sept
Goias
2 : 1
Avai
15 Sept
Avai
1 : 1
Vila Nova FC
09 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Avai
05 Sept
Novorizontino
3 : 1
Avai
30 Aug
Avai
0 : 1
Atletico GO
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Chapecoense-SC

(Away)
19 Sept
Atletico-MG
1 : 1
Chapecoense-SC
12 Sept
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 2
Internacional
06 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 2
Chapecoense-SC
30 Aug
Gremio
3 : 1
Chapecoense-SC
23 Aug
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 0
Sao Paulo
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Chapecoense-SC 4
Novorizontino 2
Avai 5
Volta Redonda 2
Final
Chapecoense-SC 3
Avai 4