Sport Picks

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Avai vs Chapecoense-SC

Brazil Brazil

Copa Sul-Sudeste Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada), Florianópolis
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Jean L.
36'
Joao Paulo
37' Event
Jean L.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Avai advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Avai
17%
Draws
13%
Chapecoense-SC
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Avai

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Avai come out ahead of Chapecoense-SC on wins alone.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Avai taking it.
  • Avai have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Avai, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Avai Clean Sheet 68%
Chapecoense-SC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avai Chapecoense-SC
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 10 8
Draws 7 5
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.25 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Chapecoense-SC vs Avai
3:1
Jun 3, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Avai vs Chapecoense-SC
3:0
Apr 8, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Chapecoense-SC vs Avai
2:1
Jan 22, 2026 Catarinense
Avai vs Chapecoense-SC
1:1
Sep 26, 2025 Serie B
Chapecoense-SC vs Avai
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avai Compare

Top Goalscorer Jean L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Wallison
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Chapecoense-SC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avai 77 / 100
Chapecoense-SC 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avai Chapecoense-SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AVA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avai's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Chapecoense-SC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Avai has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Avai VS Chapecoense-SC
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Avai

(Home)
28 Jul
EC Juventude
1 : 0
Avai
21 Jul
Avai
2 : 1
America MG
17 Jul
Sao Bernardo
1 : 1
Avai
12 Jul
Avai
2 : 0
Nautico
06 Jul
Botafogo SP
3 : 1
Avai
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Chapecoense-SC

(Away)
25 Jul
Santos
2 : 2
Chapecoense-SC
23 Jul
Chapecoense-SC
0 : 4
Flamengo RJ
17 Jul
Bahia
2 : 0
Chapecoense-SC
04 Jul
Gremio
1 : 2
Chapecoense-SC
07 Jun
Chapecoense-SC
3 : 1
Avai
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Chapecoense-SC4
Novorizontino2
Avai5
Volta Redonda2
Final
Chapecoense-SC3
Avai4