Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Best Denki Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Okuno K.
19' Event
Sakuragawa S.
Assist: Sakata R.
29'
Nara T.

AI Match Summary

Cerezo Osaka in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cerezo Osaka.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Avispa Fukuoka
6%
Draws
90%
Cerezo Osaka
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Cerezo Osaka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Cerezo Osaka have won more games recently than Avispa Fukuoka.
  • Model gives Cerezo Osaka a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Cerezo Osaka have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Avispa Fukuoka Clean Sheet 10%
Cerezo Osaka Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avispa Fukuoka Cerezo Osaka
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 16
Draws 4 1
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.38 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka
2:1
Feb 15, 2026 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka
0:2
Sep 13, 2025 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka
2:4
May 24, 2025 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka
2:0
Nov 9, 2024 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avispa Fukuoka Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Cerezo Osaka Compare

Top Goalscorer Sakuragawa S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thiago Andrade
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avispa Fukuoka 10 / 100
Cerezo Osaka 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avispa Fukuoka Cerezo Osaka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Avispa Fukuoka scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Cerezo Osaka let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Avispa Fukuoka went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Avispa Fukuoka VS Cerezo Osaka
1.38 Goals Scored 2.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kashima Antlers18150331:1145
2FC Tokyo18130532:1837
3Machida Zelvia18130528:2237
4Kawasaki Frontale18100826:2828
5Verdy18100822:2628
6Urawa Reds18701125:2225
7Yokohama F. Marinos18601228:3120
8Kashiwa Reysol18701122:2420
9Mito18601223:3918
10Chiba18301518:3412
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vissel Kobe18110729:2535
2Cerezo Osaka18110730:2131
3Nagoya Grampus18100833:3131
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima18100831:2330
5Gamba Osaka18100831:2528
6Okayama18801026:2926
7Shimizu S-Pulse18801023:2524
8Kyoto18801022:2823
9V-Varen Nagasaki18701121:2921
10Avispa Fukuoka18701121:3121