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Ayeyawady vs Shan United

Myanmar Myanmar

National League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Bakayoko M.
16' Event
Ko Sa Aung Pyae
22' Event
Ko Sa Aung Pyae
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

The National League 2025/2026 game between Ayeyawady and Shan United finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shan United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Ayeyawady
15%
Draws
53%
Shan United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shan United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Shan United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Shan United taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Shan United here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Ayeyawady Clean Sheet 10%
Shan United Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayeyawady Shan United
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 19
Draws 6 4
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.27 2.52
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 10, 2026 National League
Ayeyawady vs Shan United
1:3
Sep 27, 2025 National League
Shan United vs Ayeyawady
3:1
Jun 24, 2025 MNL League Cup
Ayeyawady vs Shan United
0:2
Oct 19, 2024 National League
Shan United vs Ayeyawady
2:0
Sep 8, 2024 National League
Ayeyawady vs Shan United
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ayeyawady Compare

Top Goalscorer Shine Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Shan United Compare

Top Goalscorer Bakayoko M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ko Sa Aung Pyae
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayeyawady 14 / 100
Shan United 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayeyawady Shan United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shan United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ayeyawady scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Shan United let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Ayeyawady went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ayeyawady VS Shan United
1.63 Goals Scored 3.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayeyawady

(Home)
06 Sept
Ayeyawady
0 : 5
Dagon
29 Aug
Ayeyawady
2 : 1
Ispe
17 Mar
Mahar United
2 : 1
Ayeyawady
13 Mar
Ayeyawady
5 : 0
Yarmanya United
05 Mar
Yadanarbon
2 : 1
Ayeyawady
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Shan United

(Away)
14 Sept
Shan United
2 : 0
Ezra
11 Sept
Ezra
3 : 2
Shan United
05 Sept
Myawady
0 : 4
Shan United
30 Aug
Yangon Royals
2 : 2
Shan United
18 Mar
Shan United
1 : 0
Hantharwady United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shan United 22 18 4 0 66:10 58
2 Yangon United 22 18 3 1 70:7 57
3 Dagon 22 11 6 5 39:30 39
4 Ispe 22 9 4 9 35:46 31
5 Hantharwady United 22 7 7 8 32:34 28
6 Mahar United 22 7 7 8 39:44 28
7 Yadanarbon 22 7 5 10 38:38 26
8 Ayeyawady 22 7 5 10 25:26 26
9 Thitsar Arman 22 5 9 8 36:38 24
10 Dagon Port 22 5 7 10 44:62 22
11 Rakhine United 22 5 4 13 28:54 19
12 Yarmanya United 22 1 3 18 17:80 6
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