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Azerbaijan vs Sierra Leone

World World

FIFA Series Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium, Sumqayit
Azerbaijan Logo

Azerbaijan

Mon, Mar 30, 2026
2 - 1
03:00 PM
Sierra Leone Logo

Sierra Leone

Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Kanu D.
Assist: Kanu I.
38'
Conteh K.
42'
Kanu I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Azerbaijan
15%
Draws
28%
Sierra Leone
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Azerbaijan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Sierra Leone at 1.11 per game, Azerbaijan at 0.96.
  • Win probability leans Azerbaijan's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Azerbaijan, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Azerbaijan Clean Sheet 68%
Sierra Leone Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Azerbaijan Sierra Leone
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 7 7
Draws 4 7
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 0.96 1.11
Goals Conceded 2.04 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2026 FIFA Series
Azerbaijan vs Sierra Leone
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Azerbaijan Compare

Top Goalscorer Mammadov R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sierra Leone Compare

Top Goalscorer Kanu D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Azerbaijan 59 / 100
Sierra Leone 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Azerbaijan Sierra Leone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Azerbaijan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sierra Leone has conceded goals in 78% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Azerbaijan remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Sierra Leone has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Azerbaijan VS Sierra Leone
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Azerbaijan

(Home)
23 Sept
Azerbaijan
1 : 0
Tajikistan
09 Jun
Azerbaijan
2 : 1
San Marino
05 Jun
Azerbaijan
0 : 2
Malta
30 Mar
Azerbaijan
2 : 1
Sierra Leone
27 Mar
Azerbaijan
6 : 1
Saint Lucia
Page 1 of 6

Sierra Leone

(Away)
09 Jun
Liberia
3 : 1
Sierra Leone
06 Jun
Sierra Leone
1 : 0
Liberia
30 Mar
Azerbaijan
2 : 1
Sierra Leone
12 Oct
Djibouti
1 : 2
Sierra Leone
08 Oct
Sierra Leone
0 : 1
Burkina Faso
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Azerbaijan 6
Saint Lucia 1
Oman -
Sierra Leone -
Indonesia 4
Saint Kitts and Nevis 0
Solomon Islands 2
Bulgaria 10
Kazakhstan -
Comoros -
Kuwait -
Namibia -
United States Virgin Islands 5
American Samoa 2
Puerto Rico 4
Guam 0
Rwanda 4
Grenada 0
Kenya 1
Estonia 2
Aruba 4
Macau 1
Tanzania 0
Liechtenstein 1
Final
Azerbaijan 2
Sierra Leone 1
Indonesia 0
Bulgaria 1
TBD -
TBD -
United States Virgin Islands 0
Puerto Rico 2
Rwanda 2
Estonia 0
Aruba 4
Liechtenstein 1