Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bahia vs Botafogo RJ

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Arena Fonte Nova
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bahia play Botafogo RJ in the Serie A Betano. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bahia averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. Botafogo RJ averaged 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Bahia won 3, Botafogo RJ won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 30, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Bahia and 1.63 for Botafogo RJ. This points to a Botafogo RJ double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Bahia
26%
Draws
39%
Botafogo RJ
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Botafogo RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Bahia picked up more points recently compared to Botafogo RJ.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72%
Bahia Clean Sheet 14%
Botafogo RJ Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahia Botafogo RJ
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 12 13
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.75 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Botafogo RJ
2:1
Oct 2, 2025 Serie A Betano
Botafogo RJ vs Bahia
2:1
May 4, 2025 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Botafogo RJ
1:0
Aug 25, 2024 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Botafogo RJ
0:0
Aug 7, 2024 Copa Betano do Brasil
Bahia vs Botafogo RJ
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bahia Compare

Top Goalscorer David Duarte
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Botafogo RJ Compare

Top Goalscorer Huguinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahia 34 / 100
Botafogo RJ 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahia Botafogo RJ

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Botafogo RJ or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bahia attacking → ← attacking Botafogo RJ

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bahia scored in 93% of their last 28 games.

Botafogo RJ let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Bahia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Botafogo RJ lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 46
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1894528:2331
4Athletico-PR1893624:1830
5Bragantino1892725:1929
6Bahia1775525:2326
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Atletico-MG1873822:2324
10Corinthians1866618:1924
11Cruzeiro1866624:2824
12Botafogo RJ1764731:3122
13Vitoria1764721:2522
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1856726:2921
16Gremio1856720:2321
17Vasco1855822:2920
18Remo1846821:2918
19Mirassol1744918:2416
20Chapecoense-SC17161017:339