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Baleares vs UCAM Murcia

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Aquino D.
45' Event
Soto A.
59' Event
Punal A.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 3 game between Baleares and UCAM Murcia finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UCAM Murcia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Baleares
20%
Draws
47%
UCAM Murcia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: UCAM Murcia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Baleares come out ahead of UCAM Murcia on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on UCAM Murcia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Baleares Clean Sheet 12%
UCAM Murcia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baleares UCAM Murcia
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 18 15
Draws 8 4
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.7 1.76
Goals Conceded 1 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Baleares vs UCAM Murcia
1:4
May 15, 2022 Primera RFEF - Group 2
UCAM Murcia vs Baleares
1:1
Nov 21, 2021 Primera RFEF - Group 2
Baleares vs UCAM Murcia
3:0
Sep 19, 2020 Club Friendly
Baleares vs UCAM Murcia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baleares Compare

Top Goalscorer Caballero R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

UCAM Murcia Compare

Top Goalscorer Aquino D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Soto A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.57
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baleares 19 / 100
UCAM Murcia 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baleares UCAM Murcia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UCAM Murcia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Baleares scored in 85% of their last 33 outings.

UCAM Murcia let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Baleares stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Baleares VS UCAM Murcia
1.88 Goals Scored 2.33
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 67%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Baleares

(Home)
20 Sept
Baleares
1 : 4
UCAM Murcia
13 Sept
CF Intercity
2 : 2
Baleares
06 Sept
Yeclano
1 : 0
Baleares
30 Aug
Baleares
3 : 1
Porreres
22 Aug
San Sebastian Reyes
0 : 3
Baleares
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UCAM Murcia

(Away)
20 Sept
Baleares
1 : 4
UCAM Murcia
13 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 0
Valencia B
05 Sept
Castellonense
2 : 1
UCAM Murcia
08 Aug
UCAM Murcia
7 : 2
Orihuela
01 Aug
UCAM Murcia
1 : 1
Hercules
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Nucia 4 4 0 0 9:1 12
2 Castellon B 4 3 0 1 10:4 9
3 Castellonense 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
4 CF Intercity 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
5 Alcoyano 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
6 Yeclano 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
7 Orihuela 4 2 1 1 6:7 7
8 UCAM Murcia 4 2 0 2 7:5 6
9 Ciudad Cieza 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
10 Lorca Deportiva 4 1 2 1 2:2 5
11 Deportiva Minera 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
12 Mallorca B 4 1 2 1 2:3 5
13 Ilicitano 4 1 1 2 2:3 4
14 UD Poblense 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
15 Real Murcia B 4 1 0 3 4:8 3
16 Baleares 4 0 2 2 4:8 2
17 Valencia B 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
18 Pena Deportiva 4 0 1 3 1:5 1
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)