Sport Picks
Basconia vs Aurrera Ondarroa
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 
Match Events
41'
41'
Hierro A.
72'
72'
Hierro A.
(Penalty)
76'
76'
Fernandez A.
AI Match Summary
Basconia in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Basconia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
50%
20%
30%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Basconia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Basconia have won more games recently than Aurrera Ondarroa.
- Win probability leans Basconia's way, sitting at 70%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Basconia have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Basconia Clean Sheet 68%
Aurrera Ondarroa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Basconia | Aurrera Ondarroa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 5 |
| Draws | 12 | 8 |
| Losses | 7 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.88 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.54 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera Ondarroa vs Basconia
1:2
Jan 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Basconia vs Aurrera Ondarroa
4:0
Feb 25, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Basconia vs Aurrera Ondarroa
2:0
Oct 22, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera Ondarroa vs Basconia
1:0
Apr 14, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Basconia vs Aurrera Ondarroa
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Basconia Compare
Top Goalscorer Hierro A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Fernandez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77
Aurrera Ondarroa Compare
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Basconia 77 / 100
Aurrera Ondarroa 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Basconia Aurrera Ondarroa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Basconia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Basconia's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 32 recent games.
Aurrera Ondarroa has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Basconia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Basconia VS -
1.88 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Basconia
(Home) 22 Aug
Basconia
1 : 3 Valladolid Promesas
15 Aug
Rayo Cantabria
3 : 3 Basconia
08 Aug
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
2 : 1 Basconia
03 May
Basconia
5 : 1 SD Ejea
26 Apr
Basconia
0 : 0 Gernika Club
Page 1 of 7
22 Aug
Basconia
1 : 3 Valladolid Promesas
03 May
Basconia
5 : 1 SD Ejea
26 Apr
Basconia
0 : 0 Gernika Club
12 Apr
Basconia
4 : 0 Mutilvera
29 Mar
Basconia
6 : 4 Alfaro
Page 1 of 4
Aurrera Ondarroa
(Away) 11 May
Urduliz FT
1 : 3 Aurrera Ondarroa
05 May
Aurrera Ondarroa
1 : 2 Basconia
01 May
Anorga
3 : 2 Aurrera Ondarroa
27 Apr
Aurrera Ondarroa
1 : 3 Alaves C
20 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0 Aurrera Ondarroa
Page 1 of 6
11 May
Urduliz FT
1 : 3 Aurrera Ondarroa
01 May
Anorga
3 : 2 Aurrera Ondarroa
20 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0 Aurrera Ondarroa
05 Apr
SCD Durango
3 : 2 Aurrera Ondarroa
23 Mar
CD Vitoria
3 : 1 Aurrera Ondarroa
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Vitoria | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 65:17 | 82 |
| 2 | Basconia | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 54:32 | 64 |
| 3 | Beasain | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 55:36 | 63 |
| 4 | SD Deusto | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 45:29 | 61 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 54:32 | 60 |
| 6 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 43:33 | 57 |
| 7 | SCD Durango | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 47:47 | 50 |
| 8 | San Ignacio | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 49:44 | 47 |
| 9 | Leioa | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 46:51 | 45 |
| 10 | Urduliz FT | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 38:47 | 42 |
| 11 | Derio | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 35:35 | 42 |
| 12 | Alaves C | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 34:42 | 40 |
| 13 | Touring KE | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39:49 | 39 |
| 14 | Padura | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 33:47 | 38 |
| 15 | Pasaia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 23:42 | 34 |
| 16 | Anaitasuna FT | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 35:51 | 32 |
| 17 | Aurrera Ondarroa | 34 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 26:54 | 24 |
| 18 | Anorga | 34 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 31:64 | 18 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
