Sport Picks
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger
Germany
Bundesliga 2025/2026 BayArena, Leverkusen 
Match Events
24'
24'
Torunarigha J.
25'
25'
Schick P.
Penalty Missed
61'
61'
Vieira F.
Assist: Capaldo N.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Bundesliga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
53%
15%
32%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bayer Leverkusen
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Bayer Leverkusen lately — more wins on the board than Hamburger.
- Bayer Leverkusen are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Bundesliga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Bayer Leverkusen Clean Sheet 20%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | Hamburger |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 9 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 6 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2.21 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 1.73 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.25 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 16, 2026 Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger
1:1
Mar 4, 2026 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Bayer Leverkusen
0:1
Feb 17, 2018 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Bayer Leverkusen
1:2
Sep 24, 2017 Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger
3:0
Feb 3, 2017 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Bayer Leverkusen
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bayer Leverkusen Compare
Top Goalscorer Quansah J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13
Hamburger Compare
Top Goalscorer Vieira F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bayer Leverkusen 85 / 100
Hamburger 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bayer Leverkusen Hamburger
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Bayer Leverkusen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Bayer Leverkusen found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).
Hamburger's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Bayer Leverkusen stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Bayer Leverkusen VS Hamburger
2.25 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Bayer Leverkusen
(Home) 16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 Celje
12 Sept
Augsburg
2 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0 Union Berlin
29 Aug
Elversberg
3 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
22 Aug
Wehen
0 : 4 Bayer Leverkusen
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 Celje
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0 Union Berlin
08 Aug
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 1 Sevilla
01 Aug
Bayer Leverkusen
3 : 0 RW Essen
29 Jul
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0 Genk
Page 1 of 3
Hamburger
(Away) 19 Sept
Hamburger
2 : 1 1. FC Koln
13 Sept
RB Leipzig
5 : 0 Hamburger
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5 Mainz
29 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 0 Hamburger
24 Aug
Verl
0 : 3 Hamburger
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
RB Leipzig
5 : 0 Hamburger
29 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 0 Hamburger
24 Aug
Verl
0 : 3 Hamburger
15 Aug
Toulouse
1 : 2 Hamburger
25 Jul
Heidenheim
1 : 3 Hamburger
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 122:36 | 89 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70:34 | 73 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 66:47 | 65 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 71:49 | 62 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 65:52 | 61 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 68:47 | 59 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51:57 | 47 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 61:65 | 44 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 45:61 | 43 |
| 10 | Mainz | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44:53 | 40 |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44:58 | 39 |
| 12 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42:53 | 38 |
| 13 | Hamburger | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:54 | 38 |
| 14 | 1. FC Koln | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 49:63 | 32 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 37:60 | 32 |
| 16 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 45:69 | 29 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 41:72 | 26 |
| 18 | St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29:60 | 26 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga (Main)
