Sport Picks
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger
Germany
Bundesliga 2025/2026 BayArena, Leverkusen 
Match Events
24'
24'
Torunarigha J.
25'
25'
Schick P.
Penalty Missed
61'
61'
Vieira F.
Assist: Capaldo N.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Bundesliga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Bayer Leverkusen
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Bayer Leverkusen lately — more wins on the board than Hamburger.
- Bayer Leverkusen are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Bundesliga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Bayer Leverkusen Clean Sheet 14%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | Hamburger |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 8 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2.25 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.88 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.25 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.88 | 2.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 16, 2026 Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger
1:1
Mar 4, 2026 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Bayer Leverkusen
0:1
Feb 17, 2018 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Bayer Leverkusen
1:2
Sep 24, 2017 Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger
3:0
Feb 3, 2017 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Bayer Leverkusen
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bayer Leverkusen Compare
Top Goalscorer Quansah J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13
Hamburger Compare
Top Goalscorer Vieira F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bayer Leverkusen 84 / 100
Hamburger 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bayer Leverkusen Hamburger
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LEV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Hamburger conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.
Bayer Leverkusen's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Bayer Leverkusen stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Bayer Leverkusen VS Hamburger
2.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Bayer Leverkusen
(Home) 18 Jul
Baumberg
0 : 7 Bayer Leverkusen
16 May
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 1 Hamburger
09 May
VfB Stuttgart
3 : 1 Bayer Leverkusen
02 May
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 1 RB Leipzig
25 Apr
1. FC Koln
1 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Page 1 of 6
16 May
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 1 Hamburger
02 May
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 1 RB Leipzig
22 Apr
Bayer Leverkusen
0 : 2 Bayern Munich
18 Apr
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 2 Augsburg
04 Apr
Bayer Leverkusen
6 : 3 Wolfsburg
Page 1 of 3
Hamburger
(Away) 18 Jul
Rapid Vienna
3 : 2 Hamburger
16 May
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 1 Hamburger
10 May
Hamburger
3 : 2 Freiburg
02 May
Eintracht Frankfurt
1 : 2 Hamburger
25 Apr
Hamburger
1 : 2 Hoffenheim
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Rapid Vienna
3 : 2 Hamburger
16 May
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 1 Hamburger
02 May
Eintracht Frankfurt
1 : 2 Hamburger
18 Apr
Werder Bremen
3 : 1 Hamburger
12 Apr
VfB Stuttgart
4 : 0 Hamburger
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 122:36 | 89 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70:34 | 73 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 66:47 | 65 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 71:49 | 62 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 65:52 | 61 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 68:47 | 59 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51:57 | 47 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 61:65 | 44 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 45:61 | 43 |
| 10 | Mainz | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44:53 | 40 |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44:58 | 39 |
| 12 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42:53 | 38 |
| 13 | Hamburger | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:54 | 38 |
| 14 | 1. FC Koln | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 49:63 | 32 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 37:60 | 32 |
| 16 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 45:69 | 29 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 41:72 | 26 |
| 18 | St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29:60 | 26 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga (Main)