Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Tercera Division - Group 4 2018/2019 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
14%
35%
51%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Balmaseda
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Balmaseda lately — more wins on the board than Bermeo.
- 51% — that's where the model lands on Balmaseda taking it.
- Regular Tercera Division - Group 4 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Bermeo Clean Sheet 20%
Balmaseda Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bermeo | Balmaseda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 2 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 13 |
| Losses | 19 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 0.67 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.73 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.04 | 1.05 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 4, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Bermeo vs Balmaseda
1:1
Dec 15, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Balmaseda vs Bermeo
1:0
May 12, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Balmaseda vs Bermeo
5:2
Dec 23, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Bermeo vs Balmaseda
2:1
Feb 11, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Bermeo vs Balmaseda
3:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bermeo 16 / 100
Balmaseda 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bermeo Balmaseda
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Balmaseda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Balmaseda's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 32 matches.
Bermeo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Bermeo found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).
Scoring Trends
- VS Balmaseda
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Bermeo
(Home) 18 May
Bermeo
1 : 2 Alaves B
11 May
Real Sociedad C
4 : 0 Bermeo
04 May
Bermeo
1 : 1 Balmaseda
27 Apr
Zamudio
0 : 0 Bermeo
18 Apr
Bermeo
3 : 3 SD San Pedro
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18 May
Bermeo
1 : 2 Alaves B
04 May
Bermeo
1 : 1 Balmaseda
18 Apr
Bermeo
3 : 3 SD San Pedro
06 Apr
Bermeo
0 : 0 Santurtzi
30 Mar
Bermeo
0 : 1 Amurrio Club
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Balmaseda
(Away) 12 Jun
CD Ariznabarra
2 : 3 Balmaseda
05 Jun
Balmaseda
2 : 0 Lagun Onak
29 May
Santurtzi
1 : 2 Balmaseda
23 May
Balmaseda
0 : 0 SCD Durango
19 May
Balmaseda
2 : 2 Santurtzi
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12 Jun
CD Ariznabarra
2 : 3 Balmaseda
29 May
Santurtzi
1 : 2 Balmaseda
15 May
Sodupe
3 : 0 Balmaseda
01 May
Lagun Onak
2 : 1 Balmaseda
17 Apr
SCD Durango
1 : 1 Balmaseda
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugalete | 38 | 26 | 8 | 4 | 65:21 | 86 |
| 2 | Sestao | 38 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 74:36 | 78 |
| 3 | Alaves B | 38 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 69:44 | 66 |
| 4 | San Ignacio | 38 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 66:36 | 63 |
| 5 | Balmaseda | 38 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 50:36 | 63 |
| 6 | Basconia | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 64:52 | 60 |
| 7 | Real Sociedad C | 38 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 71:48 | 59 |
| 8 | Somorrostro | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 59:43 | 57 |
| 9 | Sodupe | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 49:45 | 50 |
| 10 | Pasaia | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 33:46 | 49 |
| 11 | Santutxu FC | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 38:48 | 48 |
| 12 | Lagun Onak | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 46:46 | 48 |
| 13 | Beasain | 38 | 9 | 19 | 10 | 46:40 | 46 |
| 14 | Santurtzi | 38 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 33:42 | 45 |
| 15 | SD Deusto | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 41:55 | 43 |
| 16 | Zamudio | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 42:66 | 39 |
| 17 | Amurrio Club | 38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 30:64 | 34 |
| 18 | Ordizia | 38 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 40:72 | 31 |
| 19 | SD San Pedro | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 40:69 | 29 |
| 20 | Bermeo | 38 | 2 | 13 | 23 | 24:71 | 19 |
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2018/2019 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2018/2019 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2018/2019 (Main)
