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Birkenhead vs Napier City

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2015
Sun, Aug 30, 2015
1 - 2
12:15 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Napier City in this Chatham Cup 2015 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Birkenhead
15%
Draws
42%
Napier City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Birkenhead

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Birkenhead lately — more wins on the board than Napier City.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Birkenhead have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Napier City, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 90%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 91.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 90%
Over 3.5 Goals 52.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 82.2%
Birkenhead Clean Sheet 10%
Napier City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Birkenhead Napier City
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 10
Draws 3 5
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 2.26 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.94 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 19, 2024 National League
Birkenhead vs Napier City
4:2
Jul 28, 2024 Chatham Cup
Napier City vs Birkenhead
1:2
Nov 13, 2022 National League
Napier City vs Birkenhead
1:1
Aug 30, 2015 Chatham Cup
Birkenhead vs Napier City
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Birkenhead 30 / 100
Napier City 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Birkenhead Napier City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Napier City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Birkenhead found the back of the net in 94% of recent matches (31 games).

Napier City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Birkenhead went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Birkenhead VS Napier City
2.13 Goals Scored 2.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 83%
100% Over 2.5 83%
38% Over 3.5 67%

Recent Form & Match History

Birkenhead

(Home)
07 Dec
Birkenhead
3 : 1
Western Springs
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
23 Nov
Birkenhead
1 : 4
Miramar
15 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 2
Birkenhead
09 Nov
Birkenhead
3 : 0
Christchurch
Page 1 of 7

Napier City

(Away)
16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Napier City
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Cashmere Technical 3
Coastal Spirit 1
Tauranga 1
Eastern Suburbs 2
Dunedin 6
Mosgiel 1
Mangere United 3
Papakura City 1
Birkenhead 2
East Coast 0
Central United 2
Three Kings 0
Wairarapa United 2
Western Suburbs 7
Wellington Olympic 3
Napier City 4
Quarter-finals
Cashmere Technical 1
Eastern Suburbs 2
Dunedin 1
Mangere United 2
Birkenhead 3
Central United 0
Western Suburbs 0
Napier City 3
Semi-finals
Eastern Suburbs 4
Mangere United 0
Birkenhead 1
Napier City 2
Final
Eastern Suburbs 2
Napier City 1