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Bonsucesso vs Duque de Caxias

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Ezequiel
86' Event
Gabriel Cipriano
90'
Santos L.

AI Match Summary

Bonsucesso in this Carioca B1 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bonsucesso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Bonsucesso
20%
Draws
42%
Duque de Caxias
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Duque de Caxias

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Duque de Caxias lately — more wins on the board than Bonsucesso.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 68%
Duque de Caxias Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bonsucesso Duque de Caxias
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 13
Draws 9 6
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.1 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.87 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.15 1.10
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 22, 2025 Carioca B1
Bonsucesso vs Duque de Caxias
2:0
Nov 15, 2025 Carioca B1
Duque de Caxias vs Bonsucesso
1:0
Sep 27, 2025 Carioca B1
Bonsucesso vs Duque de Caxias
2:0
Nov 11, 2020 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Bonsucesso
5:0
Jan 30, 2014 Carioca
Duque de Caxias vs Bonsucesso
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bonsucesso Compare

Top Goalscorer Ezequiel
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gabriel Cipriano
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Duque de Caxias Compare

Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.61

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bonsucesso 42 / 100
Duque de Caxias 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bonsucesso Duque de Caxias

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Bonsucesso scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Bonsucesso went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Duque de Caxias has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bonsucesso VS Duque de Caxias
1.13 Goals Scored 1.33
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.17
50% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Bonsucesso

(Home)
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1
Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2
Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2
America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0
Bonsucesso
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Duque de Caxias

(Away)
19 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 1
Duque de Caxias
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0
Duque de Caxias
17 Jun
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2
Olaria
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)