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Stadium Background

Brasil de Pelotas vs GE Bage

Brazil Brazil

Copa FGF Estádio Bento Freitas, Pelotas
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Gabriel Morbeck
62'
Iury Tanque
65'
Alan Freitas

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Brasil de Pelotas advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Brasil de Pelotas
39%
Draws
31%
GE Bage
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Brasil de Pelotas come out ahead of GE Bage on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Brasil de Pelotas have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Brasil de Pelotas, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Brasil de Pelotas Clean Sheet 68%
GE Bage Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brasil de Pelotas GE Bage
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 12 9
Draws 12 11
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.13 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 4, 2026 Copa FGF
GE Bage vs Brasil de Pelotas
1:1
May 27, 2026 Copa FGF
Brasil de Pelotas vs GE Bage
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brasil de Pelotas Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Morbeck
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

GE Bage Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brasil de Pelotas 41 / 100
GE Bage 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brasil de Pelotas GE Bage

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GEB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brasil de Pelotas found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Brasil de Pelotas has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: GE Bage conceded in 54% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Brasil de Pelotas VS GE Bage
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Brasil de Pelotas

(Home)
23 Jul
Brasil de Pelotas
2 : 2
Gramadense
12 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 0
Brasil de Pelotas
04 Jul
Brasil de Pelotas
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RS
27 Jun
Santa Cruz RS
1 : 1
Brasil de Pelotas
17 Jun
Guarany de Bage
3 : 3
Brasil de Pelotas
Page 1 of 6

GE Bage

(Away)
05 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 1
GE Bage
27 Jun
GE Bage
0 : 1
Gramadense
17 Jun
Farroupilha
1 : 2
GE Bage
14 Jun
GE Bage
1 : 2
Guarany de Bage
04 Jun
GE Bage
1 : 1
Brasil de Pelotas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Gramadense63219:711
2Santa Cruz RS624010:710
3Monsoon61235:85
4Brasil de Farroupilha60425:74
Promotion - Copa FGF (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Brasil de Pelotas642012:414
2GE Bage62226:68
3Guarany de Bage61326:86
4Farroupilha60333:93
Promotion - Copa FGF (Play Offs)