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Bromsgrove vs Barwell

England England

Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

84' Event
Shaw B.

AI Match Summary

The Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 game between Bromsgrove and Barwell finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bromsgrove.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Bromsgrove
15%
Draws
34%
Barwell
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bromsgrove

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Bromsgrove carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Bromsgrove a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Bromsgrove have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 91.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Bromsgrove Clean Sheet 20%
Barwell Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bromsgrove Barwell
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 5
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 19
Goals Scored 1.64 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.36 2.21
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Southern League Premier Central
Bromsgrove vs Barwell
1:0
Oct 4, 2025 FA Trophy
Barwell vs Bromsgrove
0:3
Sep 20, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Bromsgrove
0:2
Feb 24, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Bromsgrove
2:3
Nov 16, 2024 Southern League Premier Central
Bromsgrove vs Barwell
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bromsgrove Compare

Top Goalscorer Shaw B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Barwell Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bromsgrove 58 / 100
Barwell 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bromsgrove Barwell

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bromsgrove Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Barwell let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

Bromsgrove found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Bromsgrove went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bromsgrove VS Barwell
2.75 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 83%
63% Over 2.5 67%
38% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Bromsgrove

(Home)
15 Aug
Bromsgrove
1 : 2
Anstey Nomads
11 Aug
Bromsgrove
2 : 1
Rushall
08 Aug
Needham Market
1 : 3
Bromsgrove
01 Aug
Bromsgrove
0 : 1
Hereford
28 Jul
Bromsgrove
3 : 0
Malvern Town
Page 1 of 6

Barwell

(Away)
04 Jul
Quorn
1 : 2
Barwell
25 Apr
Barwell
3 : 1
Stortford
18 Apr
Barwell
0 : 3
Bury Town
11 Apr
Needham Market
2 : 1
Barwell
06 Apr
Barwell
0 : 2
Spalding United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Harborough 42 28 11 3 81:33 95
2 Spalding United 42 25 10 7 103:54 85
3 Real Bedford 42 24 9 9 84:47 81
4 Kettering 42 21 9 12 74:52 72
5 Halesowen 42 20 10 12 85:60 70
6 Needham Market 42 20 10 12 64:53 70
7 Redditch 42 21 7 14 67:58 70
8 Quorn 42 19 8 15 78:71 65
9 Worcester 42 17 12 13 64:44 63
10 Leiston 42 16 15 11 65:58 63
11 Stratford 42 17 10 15 61:54 61
12 Banbury 42 17 9 16 51:56 60
13 Bury Town 42 15 13 14 61:53 58
14 Alvechurch 42 14 8 20 49:55 50
15 Stourbridge 42 12 14 16 58:68 50
16 Stortford 42 13 10 19 53:67 49
17 Stamford 42 13 8 21 41:64 47
18 Bromsgrove 42 12 8 22 52:73 44
19 St Ives Town 42 9 12 21 50:73 39
20 Barwell 42 9 8 25 52:85 35
21 Royston Town 42 5 10 27 35:82 25
22 Sudbury 42 6 7 29 47:115 25
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 (Play Offs)