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Buriram United F.C. vs Chonburi

Thailand Thailand

Thai League 1 2025/2026 Chang Arena, Buriram
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Queven
16' Event
Bissoli
Assist: Haiprakon S.
27'
Promsrikaew C.

AI Match Summary

The Thai League 1 2025/2026 game between Buriram United F.C. and Chonburi finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Buriram United F.C..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Buriram United F.C.
6%
Draws
4%
Chonburi
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Buriram United F.C.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Buriram United F.C. carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Buriram United F.C. a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Buriram United F.C. Clean Sheet 12%
Chonburi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Buriram United F.C. Chonburi
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 24 13
Draws 3 7
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.5 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Thai League 1
Buriram United F.C. vs Chonburi
5:0
Nov 9, 2025 Thai League 1
Chonburi vs Buriram United F.C.
4:2
Mar 10, 2024 Thai League 1
Chonburi vs Buriram United F.C.
1:1
Oct 8, 2023 Thai League 1
Buriram United F.C. vs Chonburi
2:2
Jan 29, 2023 Thai League 1
Buriram United F.C. vs Chonburi
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Buriram United F.C. Compare

Top Goalscorer Bissoli
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sanchez R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Chonburi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.66
Avg xA / game 1.02

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Buriram United F.C. 83 / 100
Chonburi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Buriram United F.C. Chonburi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BUR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Buriram United F.C. found the back of the net in 91% of recent matches (34 games).

Chonburi has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Buriram United F.C. went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Buriram United F.C. VS Chonburi
1.5 Goals Scored 1.83
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.67
88% Over 1.5 83%
63% Over 2.5 67%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Buriram United F.C.

(Home)
26 Jul
Pathum United
0 : 3
Buriram United F.C.
31 May
Buriram United F.C.
1 : 0
Prachuap
27 May
Buriram United F.C.
2 : 1
Selangor
20 May
Selangor
0 : 1
Buriram United F.C.
17 May
Buriram United F.C.
5 : 0
Ayutthaya United
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Chonburi

(Away)
10 May
Chonburi
2 : 1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
02 May
Kanchanaburi
2 : 2
Chonburi
26 Apr
Chonburi
0 : 0
Muang Thong Utd
18 Apr
Prachuap
2 : 0
Chonburi
08 Apr
Chonburi
3 : 4
Port MTI FC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Buriram United F.C.30224476:3170
2Port MTI FC30186659:2360
3Ratchaburi30185755:3059
4Pathum United301410645:2952
5Bangkok Utd301311643:3250
6Prachuap301112739:3745
7Chiangrai Utd30913836:3740
8Chonburi301091138:4139
9Rayong FC309101144:4937
10Ayutthaya United30881434:5032
11Uthai Thani307101339:4431
12Lamphun Warrior30417935:4729
13Sukhothai306101423:4228
14Muang Thong Utd30681627:5226
15Nakhon Ratchasima FC30661820:4424
16Kanchanaburi304111529:5423
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - Thai League 2 (Main)