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Stadium Background

Burundi vs Senegal

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Bingu National Stadium, Lilongwe
Burundi Logo

Burundi

0 - 1
FT
Senegal Logo

Senegal

Our Tip

Match Events

37'
Eldhino M.
42'
Mendy F.
46'
Sub
Liongola J. In: Girumugisha J.
Out: Liongola J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Senegal advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Burundi
15%
Draws
34%
Senegal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Burundi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Senegal come out ahead of Burundi on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Burundi taking it.
  • Senegal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Senegal, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Senegal here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.8%
Burundi Clean Sheet 68%
Senegal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burundi Senegal
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 8 18
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1.08 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.17
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Senegal vs Burundi
2:0
Sep 9, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Burundi vs Senegal
0:1
Jun 4, 2016 Africa Cup of Nations
Burundi vs Senegal
0:2
Jun 13, 2015 Africa Cup of Nations
Senegal vs Burundi
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burundi 50 / 100
Senegal 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burundi Senegal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burundi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Senegal's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Burundi's goal record stands at 38% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Senegal has conceded goals in 45% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Burundi VS Senegal
1.33 Goals Scored 1.5
0.83 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Burundi

(Home)
26 May
Morocco
5 : 0
Burundi
31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0
Chad
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4
Burundi
14 Oct
Gabon
2 : 0
Burundi
09 Oct
Burundi
0 : 1
Kenya
Page 1 of 6

Senegal

(Away)
01 Jul
Belgium
3 : 2
Senegal
26 Jun
Senegal
5 : 0
Iraq
23 Jun
Norway
3 : 2
Senegal
16 Jun
France
3 : 1
Senegal
09 Jun
Saudi Arabia
0 : 0
Senegal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Comoros 6 3 3 0 7:4 12
2 Tunisia 6 3 1 2 7:6 10
3 Gambia 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
4 Madagascar 6 0 2 4 4:8 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 6 6 0 0 26:2 18
2 Gabon 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
3 Lesotho 6 1 1 4 2:13 4
4 Central Africa 6 1 0 5 3:14 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 6 4 2 0 12:2 14
2 Botswana 6 2 2 2 4:7 8
3 Mauritania 6 2 1 3 3:6 7
4 Cape Verde 6 1 1 4 3:7 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nigeria 6 3 2 1 9:3 11
2 Benin 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
3 Rwanda 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
4 Libya 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 6 5 1 0 16:2 16
2 Equatorial Guinea 6 2 2 2 5:8 8
3 Togo 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
4 Liberia 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Angola 6 4 2 0 7:2 14
2 Sudan 6 2 2 2 4:6 8
3 Niger 6 2 1 3 7:6 7
4 Ghana 6 0 3 3 3:7 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zambia 6 4 1 1 7:4 13
2 Ivory Coast 6 4 0 2 12:3 12
3 Sierra Leone 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
4 Chad 6 0 3 3 1:8 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 6 4 0 2 7:3 12
2 Tanzania 6 3 1 2 5:4 10
3 Guinea 6 3 0 3 9:5 9
4 Ethiopia 6 1 1 4 3:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mali 6 4 2 0 10:1 14
2 Mozambique 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
3 Guinea Bissau 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
4 Eswatini 6 0 2 4 2:13 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 6 4 2 0 8:2 14
2 Zimbabwe 6 2 3 1 6:4 9
3 Kenya 6 1 3 2 4:7 6
4 Namibia 6 0 2 4 2:7 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 6 4 2 0 16:5 14
2 Uganda 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
3 Congo 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
4 South Sudan 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 6 5 1 0 10:1 16
2 Burkina Faso 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
3 Burundi 6 1 1 4 4:11 4
4 Malawi 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)