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Canillas vs Mexico

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Gil Pulgar D.
65' Event
Apostu A.
75' Event
Apostu A.

AI Match Summary

Mexico in this Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mexico.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Canillas
20%
Draws
80%
Mexico
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mexico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mexico lately — more wins on the board than Canillas.
  • Mexico are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38.8%
Canillas Clean Sheet 21%
Mexico Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Canillas Mexico
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 5 16
Draws 6 10
Losses 19 11
Goals Scored 1.03 1.32
Goals Conceded 2 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Canillas vs Mexico
1:2
Oct 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Mexico vs Canillas
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Canillas Compare

Top Goalscorer Gil Pulgar D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Mexico Compare

Top Goalscorer Apostu A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Canillas 12 / 100
Mexico 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Canillas Mexico

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mexico Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mexico has conceded goals in 81% of their last 37 outings.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Canillas found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Away concern: Mexico has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Mexico
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Canillas

(Home)
11 May
AD Torrejon
1 : 0
Canillas
04 May
Canillas
2 : 5
RSD Alcala
27 Apr
Rayo Vallecano B
3 : 2
Canillas
17 Apr
Canillas
0 : 3
Leganes B
12 Apr
Tres Cantos
3 : 0
Canillas
Page 1 of 6

Mexico

(Away)
19 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Union Adarve
13 Sept
AD Torrejon
1 : 0
Mexico
05 Sept
Mexico
0 : 0
CF Fuenlabrada
10 May
Leganes B
1 : 2
Mexico
03 May
Mexico
0 : 2
Trival Valderas
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RSD Alcala 34 23 6 5 68:32 75
2 Rayo Vallecano B 34 18 7 9 71:52 61
3 AD Torrejon 34 17 7 10 55:48 58
4 Villaverde San Andres 34 14 12 8 52:37 54
5 Galapagar 34 14 12 8 45:41 54
6 CD Las Rozas 34 15 9 10 45:42 54
7 Collado Villalba 34 14 10 10 44:36 52
8 Leganes B 34 13 12 9 58:38 51
9 Alcorcon B 34 13 8 13 55:50 47
10 Trival Valderas 34 12 10 12 47:47 46
11 Tres Cantos 34 12 9 13 43:44 45
12 Mexico 34 11 9 14 35:49 42
13 Carabanchel 34 10 12 12 30:29 42
14 Parla 34 10 8 16 38:58 38
15 Cala Pozuelo 34 10 8 16 42:51 38
16 Aravaca CF 34 9 8 17 42:52 35
17 Canillas 34 5 8 21 36:68 23
18 El Alamo 34 5 7 22 29:61 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2024/2025 (Play Offs)