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Caravaca vs CD Algar

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Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Moreno J.
27' Event
Goudani A.
40' Event
Vidal M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 game between Caravaca and CD Algar finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caravaca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Caravaca
30%
Draws
31%
CD Algar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Caravaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Caravaca's 1 goals per match outpaces what CD Algar have produced (0.83).
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Caravaca taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Caravaca Clean Sheet 68%
CD Algar Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaca CD Algar
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 6 6
Draws 12 5
Losses 13 18
Goals Scored 1 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Caravaca vs CD Algar
3:2
Oct 1, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
CD Algar vs Caravaca
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caravaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Moreno J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Goudani A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

CD Algar Compare

Top Goalscorer Vidal M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cascales J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaca 95 / 100
CD Algar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaca CD Algar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caravaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Algar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Caravaca found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (31 games).

Caravaca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Caravaca VS CD Algar
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Caravaca

(Home)
09 May
Bala Azul
2 : 4
Caravaca
03 May
Caravaca
0 : 1
Club Olimpico de Totana
25 Apr
FC Cartagena SAD B
0 : 0
Caravaca
19 Apr
Caravaca
1 : 1
Real Murcia B
12 Apr
Yeclano B
3 : 1
Caravaca
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CD Algar

(Away)
20 Sept
Santomera
2 : 0
CD Algar
13 Sept
CD Algar
0 : 3
Bullas Deportivo
05 Sept
CA Pulpileno
2 : 0
CD Algar
24 Aug
CD Algar
0 : 0
Minerva
10 May
CD Algar
4 : 3
Plus Ultra
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportiva Minera 34 24 6 4 53:19 78
2 Real Murcia B 34 20 8 6 67:33 68
3 Ciudad Cieza 34 19 11 4 44:24 68
4 UCAM Murcia B 34 19 5 10 42:24 62
5 Caravaca 34 18 7 9 60:32 61
6 Lorca Deportiva 34 17 8 9 64:30 59
7 Molinense 34 18 5 11 60:34 59
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 13 8 39:23 52
9 Muleno CF 34 12 7 15 37:42 43
10 Racing Murcia 34 11 7 16 36:51 40
11 Plus Ultra 34 12 2 20 43:56 38
12 E.G. El Palmar 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
13 Bullense 34 10 6 18 40:65 36
14 Balsicas Atletico 34 9 9 16 35:53 36
15 Alcantarilla 34 10 6 18 34:41 36
16 Ciudad de Murcia 34 7 9 18 28:43 30
17 CD Algar 34 7 8 19 31:65 29
18 Montecasillas 34 7 2 25 31:90 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)