Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cardiff vs Cheltenham

England England

EFL Cup 2025/2026 Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Cardiff Logo

Cardiff

3 - 0
FT
Cheltenham Logo

Cheltenham

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Davies I.
Assist: Mafico D.
26'
Robinson C.
32' Event
Chambers C.
Assist: Davies I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Cardiff advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Cardiff
6%
Draws
4%
Cheltenham
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Cardiff

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Cardiff carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Cardiff's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Cardiff have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Cardiff, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Cardiff here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 15%
Cheltenham Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cardiff Cheltenham
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 16 9
Draws 8 7
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 2.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2025 EFL Cup
Cardiff vs Cheltenham
3:0
Jul 16, 2022 Club Friendly
Cheltenham vs Cardiff
1:2
Jul 27, 2013 Club Friendly
Cheltenham vs Cardiff
1:1
Jul 31, 2012 Club Friendly
Cheltenham vs Cardiff
0:4
Jan 18, 2003 League One
Cardiff vs Cheltenham
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cardiff Compare

Top Goalscorer Davies I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chambers C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Cheltenham Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cardiff 84 / 100
Cheltenham 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cardiff Cheltenham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Cardiff scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Cheltenham has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Cardiff has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cardiff VS Cheltenham
2.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Cardiff

(Home)
25 Jul
Forest Green
1 : 5
Cardiff
14 Jul
Cork City
1 : 6
Cardiff
11 Jul
Cardiff
0 : 6
Midtjylland
02 May
Mansfield
5 : 4
Cardiff
25 Apr
Cardiff
5 : 1
Northampton
Page 1 of 6

Cheltenham

(Away)
18 Jul
Evesham
0 : 3
Cheltenham
02 May
Cheltenham
1 : 4
Colchester
25 Apr
Bristol Rovers
4 : 0
Cheltenham
21 Apr
Cheltenham
1 : 3
Tranmere
18 Apr
Cheltenham
1 : 0
Newport
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
Barrow0
Preston1
Wrexham4
Hull City3
Portsmouth1
Reading2
Gillingham1
AFC Wimbledon2
Burnley-
TBD-
West Brom1
Derby2
Cardiff2
Swindon1
Cheltenham2
Exeter0
Wolves-
TBD-
TBD-
West Ham-
Everton-
TBD-
Chesterfield0
Mansfield2
Tranmere1
Burton2
Harrogate1
Lincoln City3
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Chelsea-
Birmingham2
Sheffield Utd1
Blackpool0
Port Vale1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Arsenal-
Barnsley3
Fleetwood Town2
Salford0
Rotherham1
Oxford Utd1
Colchester0
TBD-
Brighton-
Liverpool-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Watford1
Norwich2
Northampton0
Southampton1
Crystal Palace-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Newport0
Millwall1
Coventry1
Luton0
Newcastle Utd-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Stoke City1
Walsall0
Blackburn1
Bradford City2
Tottenham-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Accrington2
Peterborough1
Middlesbrough0
Doncaster4
Wigan1
Notts County0
Stockport County3
Crewe1
Bromley2
Ipswich1
Leyton Orient0
Wycombe1
Fulham-
TBD-
Bristol City2
Milton Keynes Dons0
Bristol Rovers0
Cambridge Utd2
Charlton3
Stevenage1
Swansea3
Crawley Town1
Plymouth3
QPR2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Nottingham-
Sunderland-
TBD-
Huddersfield3
Leicester2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Manchester City-
Bolton3
Sheffield Wed4
TBD-
Leeds-
Grimsby3
Shrewsbury1
TBD-
Manchester United-
Bournemouth-
TBD-
TBD-
Brentford-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Aston Villa-
1/32-finals
Preston2
Wrexham3
Reading2
AFC Wimbledon1
Burnley2
Derby1
Cardiff3
Cheltenham0
Wolves3
West Ham2
Everton2
Mansfield0
Burton0
Lincoln City1
TBD-
Chelsea-
Birmingham0
Port Vale1
TBD-
Arsenal-
Barnsley2
Rotherham1
Oxford Utd0
Brighton6
Liverpool-
TBD-
Norwich0
Southampton3
Crystal Palace-
TBD-
Millwall2
Coventry1
Newcastle Utd-
TBD-
Stoke City0
Bradford City3
Tottenham-
TBD-
Accrington0
Doncaster2
Wigan1
Stockport County0
Bromley1
Wycombe2
Fulham2
Bristol City0
Cambridge Utd3
Charlton1
Swansea2
Plymouth1
TBD-
Nottingham-
Sunderland1
Huddersfield2
TBD-
Manchester City-
Sheffield Wed2
Leeds1
Grimsby3
Manchester United2
Bournemouth0
Brentford2
TBD-
Aston Villa-
1/16-finals
Wrexham2
Reading0
Burnley1
Cardiff2
Wolves2
Everton0
Lincoln City1
Chelsea2
Port Vale0
Arsenal2
Barnsley0
Brighton6
Liverpool2
Southampton1
Crystal Palace2
Millwall1
Newcastle Utd4
Bradford City1
Tottenham3
Doncaster0
Wigan0
Wycombe2
Fulham1
Cambridge Utd0
Swansea3
Nottingham2
Huddersfield0
Manchester City2
Sheffield Wed0
Grimsby1
Brentford2
Aston Villa1
1/8-finals
Wrexham1
Cardiff2
Wolves3
Chelsea4
Arsenal2
Brighton0
Liverpool0
Crystal Palace3
Newcastle Utd2
Tottenham0
Wycombe1
Fulham2
Swansea1
Manchester City3
Grimsby0
Brentford5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff1
Chelsea3
Arsenal2
Crystal Palace1
Newcastle Utd2
Fulham1
Manchester City2
Brentford0
Semi-finals
Chelsea2
Arsenal4
Newcastle Utd1
Manchester City5
Final
Arsenal0
Manchester City2