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Carrarese vs Empoli

Italy Italy

Serie B Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Ceesay J. In: Di Stefano F.
Out: Ceesay J.
51'
Magnino L.
60'
Sub
Topalovic L. In: Martini J.
Out: Topalovic L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Carrarese and Empoli finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Empoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Carrarese
15%
Draws
73%
Empoli
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Empoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Empoli haven't matched Carrarese's recent run of results.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Carrarese taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 30%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Carrarese Clean Sheet 20%
Empoli Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carrarese Empoli
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 7 6
Draws 8 10
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.9 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Serie B
Carrarese vs Empoli
0:1
Jan 23, 2026 Serie B
Carrarese vs Empoli
3:0
Sep 28, 2025 Serie B
Empoli vs Carrarese
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carrarese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Empoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Popov B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carrarese 36 / 100
Empoli 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carrarese Empoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Empoli's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.67 goals when they meet.

Empoli lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Carrarese scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Carrarese VS Empoli
0.5 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Carrarese

(Home)
19 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Benevento
12 Sept
Catanzaro
1 : 0
Carrarese
05 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Empoli
29 Aug
Ascoli
1 : 1
Carrarese
22 Aug
Carrarese
1 : 2
Mantova
Page 1 of 6

Empoli

(Away)
20 Sept
Modena
2 : 1
Empoli
11 Sept
Empoli
0 : 1
Arezzo
05 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Empoli
30 Aug
Mantova
3 : 1
Empoli
22 Aug
Empoli
1 : 0
Cremonese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10:5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9:3 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10:5 11
4 Modena 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7:4 10
6 Padova 5 2 1 2 5:6 7
7 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6:5 7
8 Verona 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 Avellino 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7:6 7
11 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
12 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6:13 6
13 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4:6 6
14 Entella 5 1 2 2 7:6 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7:10 5
17 Sampdoria 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
18 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4:7 3
19 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5:9 3
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2:6 1
Promotion - Serie A 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B (Play Out)