Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cartagena vs Orsomarso

Colombia Colombia

Primera B Estadio Jaime Morón León, Cartagena
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Matamba D.
23' Event
Manotas M.
27' Event
Montero F.

AI Match Summary

The Primera B game between Cartagena and Orsomarso finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cartagena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Cartagena
20%
Draws
38%
Orsomarso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cartagena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Cartagena carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Cartagena taking it.
  • Regular Primera B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Cartagena have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 64.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Cartagena Clean Sheet 68%
Orsomarso Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cartagena Orsomarso
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 14 6
Draws 8 12
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.58 0.82
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 0.96 1.03
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Cartagena
0:1
Mar 6, 2026 Primera B
Cartagena vs Orsomarso
4:0
Sep 21, 2025 Primera B
Cartagena vs Orsomarso
3:1
Apr 11, 2025 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Cartagena
1:2
Nov 23, 2024 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Cartagena
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cartagena Compare

Top Goalscorer Montero F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Manotas M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.48

Orsomarso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.94
Avg xA / game 0.57

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cartagena 68 / 100
Orsomarso 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cartagena Orsomarso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cartagena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cartagena found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

Orsomarso has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Cartagena stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cartagena VS Orsomarso
1.63 Goals Scored 0.57
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.29
100% Over 1.5 29%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Cartagena

(Home)
05 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 1
Cartagena
29 Aug
Cartagena
0 : 3
Tigres Futbol Club
24 Aug
Leones
1 : 6
Cartagena
20 Aug
Cartagena
2 : 0
Bogota
07 Aug
Cartagena
0 : 2
Independiente Valle del Cauca
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Orsomarso

(Away)
05 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 1
Cartagena
24 Aug
Orsomarso
2 : 0
Real Cundinamarca
20 Aug
Patriotas
1 : 1
Orsomarso
31 Jul
Union Magdalena
0 : 0
Orsomarso
26 Jul
Orsomarso
1 : 0
Barranquilla
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter Palmira 15 12 2 1 29:13 38
2 Union Magdalena 15 10 2 3 27:15 32
3 Quindio 15 9 4 2 20:10 31
4 Envigado 15 9 2 4 24:14 29
5 Cartagena 15 7 5 3 23:15 26
6 Bogota 15 6 5 4 16:14 23
7 Barranquilla 15 6 2 7 21:20 20
8 Tigres Futbol Club 15 5 5 5 15:14 20
9 Independiente Valle del Cauca 15 4 7 4 13:14 19
10 Orsomarso 15 4 5 6 13:17 17
11 Patriotas 15 4 5 6 13:17 17
12 Boca Juniors de Cali 15 2 7 6 15:20 13
13 Real Cundinamarca 15 2 7 6 14:19 13
14 Leones 15 2 4 9 8:24 10
15 Atletico F.C. 15 1 6 8 12:23 9
16 Real Santander 15 1 4 10 9:23 7
Promotion - Primera B (Apertura - Quadrangular)