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Casale vs Calcio Derthona

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Serie D - Group A 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 game between Casale and Calcio Derthona finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Casale.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Casale
35%
Draws
46%
Calcio Derthona
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Calcio Derthona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Calcio Derthona carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Casale Clean Sheet 10%
Calcio Derthona Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casale Calcio Derthona
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 3 5
Draws 5 9
Losses 24 16
Goals Scored 0.59 0.63
Goals Conceded 2.28 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2018 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Calcio Derthona
2:0
Nov 5, 2017 Serie D - Group A
Calcio Derthona vs Casale
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casale 30 / 100
Calcio Derthona 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casale Calcio Derthona

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Calcio Derthona let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Casale's goal record stands at 41% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Casale went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Casale VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
3 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Casale

(Home)
07 May
Casale
1 : 1
Asti Calcio
30 Apr
Chisola
2 : 1
Casale
23 Apr
Casale
2 : 2
Pinerolo
15 Apr
Sanremese
1 : 0
Casale
06 Apr
Casale
0 : 2
Castanese
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Calcio Derthona

(Away)
06 May
Bra
1 : 2
Calcio Derthona
29 Apr
Calcio Derthona
1 : 1
Olginatese
22 Apr
Gozzano
6 : 1
Calcio Derthona
15 Apr
Calcio Derthona
1 : 3
Inveruno
08 Apr
OltrepoVoghera
1 : 1
Calcio Derthona
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gozzano 38 25 7 6 68:25 82
2 Como 38 25 6 7 58:27 81
3 Caronnese 38 21 11 6 62:30 74
4 AC Chieri 38 19 14 5 64:37 71
5 Pro Sesto 38 20 7 11 69:43 67
6 Folgore Caratese 38 14 14 10 45:39 56
7 Inveruno 38 14 10 14 44:48 52
8 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 9 15 40:39 51
9 Arconatese 38 14 8 16 37:46 50
10 Bra 38 13 10 15 45:51 49
11 Pavia 38 12 11 15 53:58 47
12 Borgaro 38 11 13 14 35:44 46
13 Olginatese 38 9 18 11 37:44 45
14 Seregno Calcio 38 10 14 14 45:54 44
15 OltrepoVoghera 38 9 16 13 34:47 43
16 Casale 38 10 12 16 41:48 42
17 Varesina 38 10 11 17 33:45 41
18 Varese 38 8 16 14 47:49 40
19 Calcio Derthona 38 5 11 22 25:62 26
20 Castellazzo 38 3 10 25 32:78 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Play Offs)