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Castellon B vs Lorca Deportiva Prediction & H2H Stats

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Castellon B host Lorca Deportiva in the Segunda RFEF - Group 3. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Castellon B at 1.69 goals for, 1.83 against; Lorca Deportiva at 0.72 for, 1.07 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (0.94 xG vs 0.94) point toward Castellon B. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Castellon B
20%
Draws
24%
Lorca Deportiva
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castellon B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Castellon B carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 56% — that's where the model lands on Castellon B taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Castellon B Clean Sheet 20%
Lorca Deportiva Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellon B Lorca Deportiva
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.69 0.72
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellon B 85 / 100
Lorca Deportiva 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellon B Lorca Deportiva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellon B Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castellon B's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Lorca Deportiva let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Castellon B stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Lorca Deportiva has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Castellon B VS Lorca Deportiva
1.25 Goals Scored 0.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 13%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellon B

(Home)
26 Sept
Orihuela
1 : 4
Castellon B
19 Sept
Valencia B
1 : 2
Castellon B
12 Sept
Castellon B
3 : 0
Alcoyano
05 Sept
Castellon B
1 : 2
CF Intercity
29 Aug
Reus FC Reddis
0 : 1
Castellon B
Page 1 of 6

Lorca Deportiva

(Away)
27 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 0
Castellonense
20 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
0 : 0
CF Intercity
13 Sept
Orihuela
1 : 0
Lorca Deportiva
06 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 1
Ilicitano
15 Aug
Aguilas FC
1 : 0
Lorca Deportiva
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Nucia 4 4 0 0 9:1 12
2 Castellon B 4 3 0 1 10:4 9
3 Castellonense 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
4 CF Intercity 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
5 Alcoyano 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
6 Yeclano 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
7 Orihuela 4 2 1 1 6:7 7
8 UCAM Murcia 4 2 0 2 7:5 6
9 Ciudad Cieza 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
10 Lorca Deportiva 4 1 2 1 2:2 5
11 Deportiva Minera 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
12 Mallorca B 4 1 2 1 2:3 5
13 Ilicitano 4 1 1 2 2:3 4
14 UD Poblense 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
15 Real Murcia B 4 1 0 3 4:8 3
16 Baleares 4 0 2 2 4:8 2
17 Valencia B 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
18 Pena Deportiva 4 0 1 3 1:5 1
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)