Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 10

AD Ceuta B

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Castilleja CF play AD Ceuta B in the Tercera RFEF - Group 10. It looks like a close match. Recently, Castilleja CF averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. AD Ceuta B averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, Castilleja CF won 1, AD Ceuta B won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Castilleja CF and 1.69 for AD Ceuta B. This points to a AD Ceuta B double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Castilleja CF

25%

Draws

45%

AD Ceuta B

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: AD Ceuta B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Castilleja CF picked up more points recently compared to AD Ceuta B.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 44%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

Castilleja CF Clean Sheet 13%

AD Ceuta B Clean Sheet 17%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Castilleja CF	AD Ceuta B
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	6	12
Draws	7	8
Losses	17	10
Goals Scored	0.93	1.2
Goals Conceded	1.93	1.23
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 10

AD Ceuta B vs Castilleja CF

Possession: 59% - 55% Cards: 3 - 4

2:2

Jan 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 10

Castilleja CF vs AD Ceuta B

Possession: 58% - 49% Cards: 3 - 2

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castilleja CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Cazorla A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Garrido H.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

AD Ceuta B Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez F. G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castilleja CF 30 / 100

AD Ceuta B 44 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Castilleja CF AD Ceuta B

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: AD Ceuta B or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +36.5%

4.55

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.7%

2.63

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Castilleja CF attacking → ← attacking AD Ceuta B

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castilleja CF scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

AD Ceuta B let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Castilleja CF went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

AD Ceuta B lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 44

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ciudad de Lucena	34	22	7	5	69:25	73
2	Dos Hermanas	34	18	6	10	69:39	60
3	Atletico Central	34	15	10	9	36:29	55
4	Bollullos	34	14	11	9	43:35	53
5	AD Ceuta B	34	14	10	10	38:38	52
6	Linense	34	13	13	8	45:32	52
7	Cadiz B	34	14	10	10	50:38	52
8	Conil	34	15	7	12	43:44	52
9	Cordoba B	34	12	8	14	44:44	44
10	CD Utrera	34	12	8	14	40:47	44
11	Pozoblanco	34	10	13	11	39:44	43
12	Chiclana	34	10	13	11	39:45	43
13	San Roque de Lepe	34	10	13	11	39:39	43
14	Atl. Onubense (Huelva B)	34	10	10	14	36:43	40
15	Tomares UD	34	10	9	15	34:46	39
16	Sevilla C	34	10	8	16	34:41	38
17	Castilleja CF	34	6	9	19	28:62	27
18	Coria C.F.	34	4	9	21	24:59	21