Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Catanzaro vs Bari

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Verrengia B.
Assist: D'Alessandro M.
16'
Buglio D.
23' Event
Moncini G.
Assist: Rao E.

AI Match Summary

Bari in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bari.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Catanzaro
39%
Draws
31%
Bari
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Catanzaro have won more games recently than Bari.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Catanzaro Clean Sheet 68%
Bari Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Catanzaro Bari
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 7 8
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.25 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Bari
2:3
Dec 19, 2025 Serie B
Bari vs Catanzaro
1:2
Apr 6, 2025 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Bari
3:3
Oct 18, 2024 Serie B
Bari vs Catanzaro
1:1
Feb 27, 2024 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Bari
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Catanzaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Verrengia B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Bari Compare

Top Goalscorer Piscopo K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Moncini G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Catanzaro 41 / 100
Bari 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Catanzaro Bari

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Catanzaro scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Bari's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Catanzaro stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Catanzaro VS Bari
2.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Catanzaro

(Home)
29 Jul
Catanzaro
3 : 1
Paradiso
29 May
Monza
0 : 2
Catanzaro
24 May
Catanzaro
0 : 2
Monza
20 May
Palermo
2 : 0
Catanzaro
17 May
Catanzaro
3 : 0
Palermo
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Bari

(Away)
28 Jul
Lanciano
0 : 1
Bari
22 May
Sudtirol
0 : 0
Bari
15 May
Bari
0 : 0
Sudtirol
08 May
Catanzaro
2 : 3
Bari
01 May
Bari
2 : 0
Entella
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)